Can Overnight Strength in the Grain Market Hold?

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Can Overnight Strength in the Grain Market Hold?

Overnight action in grain markets through much of the week has been suspect at best, will the early morning strength hold?

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Wheat


Thursday’s Recap
July Wheat futures settled at a one week low of 529’2 Thursday, lower by 5’0. Overall, a light 91,621 contracts changed hands, with 53,543 traded in July. Total open interest increased 5,561 (1.22%) to end the session with 461,480 outstanding. The July maturity increased by 0.22%, or 5,561, to finish at 266,852.

Technicals
July Chicago wheat futures saw another choppy trade yesterday as prices refused to rally, but didn’t really see tons of new selling either. Futures are right near our pivot point in the early morning trade which is a pretty low bar to keep an eye on. For the Bulls to feel more comfortable about a bigger relief rally, they will want to achieve consecutive closes above 548 1/4-550 3/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 548 1/4-550 3/4***, 569 1/4-571***
Pivot: 532 1/2
Support: 517 1/2-523 1/4***, 501 1/4***


Popular Options
Option volumes were greatest for the July 620 call (3,081) and the Sep 520 put (951). Options with the highest open interest are the July 600 call with 14,944, and the July 550 put with 9,172.

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed lower with WVL dropping 0.71, to finish the day at a one month low of 28.51. Historical volatility (30-day) finished the session at 20.62%, off 0.27%, to a one week low. The WVL Skew was moderately lower, off 0.53 to close the session at a one week low of 5.91.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.5.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 31.5k futures/options. This expands their net short position to 121,415, the largest net short since May of 2023.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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