Grain Markets Retreat Overnight

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Retreat Overnight

Grain markets were hit hard in Tuesday’s trade, with several markets breaking back below technical support levels. Corn and wheat are attempting to find their footing in the early morning trade while Soybeans remain under pressure.

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Corn

Monday’s Recap

Corn futures were mostly higher Monday with the July contract finishing the session at 448’0, off 1’6. Overall, 526,145 contracts changed hands, with 249,867 traded in July. Total open interest fell 12,484 (0.78%) to 1,578,986. July lost 3,948, or 0.59%, finishing at 670,829.

Technicals 

Corn futures were initially higher following yesterday’s WASDE report but reversed to finish the day in negative territory, spilling into weakness overnight. Overnight action has been fairly misleading recently, trading higher overnight several times over the last week only to see selling pressure throughout the regular trading hours.  Today’s action will be very important.  Prices are within arm’s reach of last week’s low of 442 1/4, more significant support comes in from 436 3/4-437.  As mentioned in prior reports, there seems to be a divergence between the techncials and the fundamentals.  

Technical Levels of Importance

  • Resistance: 450 1/2-455 1/4***, 463 1/4-465 1/4***
  • Pivot: 442 1/4-445 3/4
  • Support: 436 3/4-437****

Headlines

U.S. farmers are poised to reap a record corn crop in the upcoming 2025-26 cycle.

Additionally, combined output among key corn exporters in South America is also slated for an all-time high in 2025-26.  But the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts global corn ending stocks to fall to 12-year lows in 2025-26 as demand continues its robust pace. This means that the strong U.S. crop expectations need to come to fruition to prevent a further slippage in supplies.

USDA on Monday pegged 2025-26 global corn ending stocks at 277.8 million metric tons, considerably below the pre-report trade estimate of 297.4 million.

That is down 3% on the year and down 16% from 2023-24, and it would represent the lightest global carryout since 2013-14.  If demand is factored in, corn stocks-to-use of 18.9% in 2025-26 would be the lowest since 2012-13, further demonstrating that corn supplies are not exactly predicted to be plentiful. -Reuters

Popular Options

Option trading centered around the July 460 calls with 6,009 done and the July 450 puts with volume of 10,483. Calls with the largest open interest are the Dec 500 strike (34,218), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (25,431).

Volatility Update

Implied Volatility finished the session moderately down with CVL lower by 0.84, to close at a one week low of 23.59. Down 0.22% to a one week low, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the session at 19.41%. The CVL Skew ended the day slightly higher, gaining 0.018 to settle at 2.30.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 5.12.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).  

 

Commitment of Traders Update

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 57k futures and options contracts through May 6th, shrinking their net long position to 13,893, the smallest net long position since October. 

Ready to dig in? 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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