Grain Markets Mixed in Thursday’s Trade

Corn

Thursday’s Recap
Corn futures were mostly lower Thursday with the July contract finishing the session at 448’4, up by 3’0. Across all maturities, the session saw 395,595 contracts traded, with July volume coming in at 191,182. Overall open interest added 6,431, or 0.40%, to 1,604,326. July rose 3,450 (0.51%), finishing at 679,342.

Technicals
July corn futures were able to gain some ground back again on Thursday, posting the third straight day of gains. The market has traded back into our first resistance pocket from 450 1/2-455 1/4. Consecutive closes above here and we could see additional relief in the market with potential upside targets from there coming in another 15 cents higher. On the flip side, a break and close back below our pivot pocket would neutralize that bias and put the Bear’s back in the driver’s seat.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 450 1/2-455 1/4***, 463 1/4-465 1/4***
Pivot: 442 1/4-445 3/4
Support: 436-437****

Headlines
CONAB Production Estimates

Brazilian second-corn farmers are poised to increase production by some 11% in the 2024/25 season, national crop agency Conab said on Thursday citing good weather in key growing regions and strong demand from domestic corn ethanol producers for a good chunk of the supply. In its May crop report, Conab said farmers have finished sowing their second-corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same fields. It pegged this year’s output at 99.8 million tons. In most second-corn producing regions, rainfall favored crop development and boosted yields, even if in states like Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul dry spells affected the crop’s production potential in the beginning of the planting season. March and April showers, however, helped in the recovery of part of the areas and favored the second-corn sowed later, Conab said. Regarding demand, Conab estimates that 89.3 million tons of corn from the 2024/25 harvest will be consumed domestically throughout 2025, an increase of 6.3% compared to the previous harvest, driven by growing production of corn ethanol. Domestic consumption will limit Brazil’s corn exports this season to 34 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast, according to Conab’s new report. -Reuters

Weekly Export Sales

Net sales of 1,677,200 MT for 2024/2025 were up 1 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 508,900 MT for 2025/2026

Popular Options
The July 430 put saw the most changing hands with 5,078 contracts done. Option open interest is largest for the Dec 500 calls at 35,456, and the Dec 400 puts at 25,775.

Volatility Update

As measured by CVL, implied volatility finished the day slightly higher, adding 0.19 to end the session at 24.38. Higher by 0.13%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the session at 19.57%. The CVL Skew closed the day moderately higher, gaining 0.17 to finish at 3.09, a one week high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.12.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 57k futures and options contracts through May 6th, shrinking their net long position to 13,893, the smallest net long position since October.