Grains Green to Start the Week. Will it Last?

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grains Green to Start the Week. Will it Last?

Grain markets finished last week’s trade under minor pressure but have found their footing in the early morning trade. Will markets be able to hold onto the early morning strength? Or will fade the overnight continue to be the common theme.

Wheat


Friday’s Recap
July Wheat futures settled at 525’0 Friday, dropping by 7’6, or 1.45%. Across all maturities, a light 87,026 contracts changed hands, with 49,356 traded in the July maturity. Total open interest added 134, or 0.0278%, to end the session with 482,312 outstanding. The July maturity dropped 0.65% (134) to finish at 265,615.

Technicals
Wheat futures had an impressive midweek trade, but gave some ground back on Friday. Resistance remains intact from 532 1/2-535. Consecutive closes above here and things for the Bulls could get more exciting. The next hurdle comes in from 548 1/4-550 3/4. On the flipside, must hold support is seen as 517 1/2-523 1/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 532 1/2-535***, 548 1/4-550 3/4***, 569 1/4-571***
Pivot: 517 1/2-523 1/4
Support: 498-501 1/4***


Popular Options
The June 510 put saw the most changing hands with 1,610 contracts traded. In July options, the highest volume call was in the 540 strike with 428 traded, and the 510 put leads with volume of 730. Option open interest is largest for the July 550 calls at 15,630, and the July 550 puts at 9,352.

Volatility Update
Wheat implied volatility was moderately up as WVL added 0.51 to close the session at 27.66, a one week high. Higher by 0.45% to a one month high, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) closed at 21.37%. The WVL Skew was slightly higher with the 30-day gaining 0.044, ending at 4.67.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.19.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 13k futures/options. This expands their net short position to 126,895. This nearly ties the May 2023 net short position. This would make it one of the largest net short positions since the end of 2017 and start of 2018.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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