Grains Slide Lower on Tariff Talk Ahead of the Long Weekend

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grains Slide Lower on Tariff Talk Ahead of the Long Weekend

Grain markets stalled against resistance in yesterday’s trade and are retreating this morning following trade headlines ahead of the long weekend

Headlines sending outside markets lower this morning, ahead of a long weekend:
*DJ TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: DISCUSSIONS WITH EUROPEAN UNION ‘GOING NOWHERE’
*DJ TRUMP ON TRUTH SOCIAL: RECOMMENDING STRAIGHT 50% TARIFF ON EUROPEAN UNION STARTING JUNE 1

Corn

Thursday’s Recap
For the fourth consecutive session, Corn futures closed higher, with the July contract settling Thursday at 463’0, up by 2’0. Overall, 402,199 contracts changed hands, with 192,800 traded in July. Total open interest gained 437 (0.0266%) to end the session with 1,642,937 outstanding. The July maturity shed 1.10%, or 437, to finish at 669,139.

Technicals
Corn futures continued to grind higher in Thursday’s trade, but stalled out right in our resistance pocket which we’ve outlined as 463 1/4-465 1/4. If you’ve been bullish or long the market, you may consider reducing risk/exposure ahead of the long weekend. With it being weather season, gaps are likely on the reopen next week. Which way, nobody knows, so managing risk into that uncertainty is prudent.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 463 1/4-465 1/4***
Pivot: 450 1/2-455 1/4
Support: 442 1/4-445 3/4**, 436-437****

Headlines
Weekly Export Sales: Net sales of 1,190,800 MT for 2024/2025 were down 29 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 218,400 MT for 2025/2026

Popular Options
The June 455 put saw the most changing hands with 18,436 contracts done. In July options, the most active call was the 480 strike with 4,236 done, and the 450 put leads with volume of 5,285. Calls with the greatest open interest are the Dec 500 strike (36,572), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (24,670).

Volatility Update

Implied Volatility closed down with CVL losing 0.68, to settle at 25.20. Higher by 0.31% to a one month high, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) ended the session at 20.50%. The CVL Skew finished the day moderately down, off by 0.77 to end the session at 2.87.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 5.19.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 99k futures and options contracts through May 13th, making them net short 84,976 contracts. This is their largest net short since last October.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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