Cattle Reverse and Finish Lower After Posting New Contract Highs

Screwworm Statement from the USDA

(Washington, D.C., May 27, 2025) – U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins today provided an update on the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) ongoing partnership with Mexico to combat the New World Screwworm (NWS). This afternoon, Secretary Rollins held a call with her counterpart in Mexico, Secretary Berdegue, to discuss the ongoing threat of NWS and actions being taken by both countries to contain the threat south of the U.S. border. USDA is working daily with Mexico to make sure the resources, tactics, and tools are in place to effectively eradicate NWS. Additionally, Secretary Rollins announced today the USDA is investing $21 million to renovate an existing fruit fly production facility in Metapa, Mexico to further the long-term goal of eradicating this insect. When operational, this facility will produce 60-100 million additional sterile NWS flies weekly to push the population further south in Mexico. Given the geographic spread of NWS, this additional production capacity will be critical to our response.

“Our partnership with Mexico is crucial in making this effort a success,” said Secretary Rollins. “We are continuing to work closely with Mexico to push NWS away from the United States and out of Mexico. The investment I am announcing today is one of many efforts my team is making around the clock to protect our animals, our farm economy, and the security of our nation’s food supply.”

Current restrictions on live animal imports from Mexico remain in place, and as previously announced, USDA will continue to evaluate the current suspension every 30 days.

USDA and its partners have used sterile insect technique, or SIT, along with other strategies such as intense surveillance and import controls for decades to eradicate and effectively keep NWS at bay. Currently, U.S. supported sterile insect rearing and dispersal operations in Mexico and Central America have been operating at full production capacity, with up to 44 flights a week releasing 100 million sterile flies. All flies used today are raised in the Panama – United States Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm (COPEG) Facility in Panama. This investment in the Metapa facility in Mexico would allow USDA to double the use of SIT.

Additionally, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and its Mexican counterparts continue to hold ongoing technical calls and meetings on NWS. They are making strong progress toward enhancing surveillance in Mexico, addressing administrative or regulatory roadblocks that could impair an effective response, and ensuring appropriate animal movement controls are in place to prevent further NWS spread. The Mexican delegation joined APHIS in DC last week to discuss these efforts, and APHIS will have a technical team visiting Mexico in the coming weeks to assess the on-the-ground situation and continue working toward key goals around surveillance and animal movement.

Live Cattle (August)

We’ve talked about high velocity risk being skewed to the downside several times over the last several weeks. We saw an example of that last week and again yesterday. a 5-day grind higher erased in the matter of about an hour. The market did recover and finish off the lows, but it should act as a reminder that risk happens fast. We continue to believe it’s prudent to have protection to the downside, we like looking at the options market as the outlet for that, as it offers more staying power to weather wide intraday swings like we saw yesterday. Oddly enough, support and resistance levels remain intact from yesterday’s report. Resistance held to a T and first support was about a dollar away from the lows. Important to note that open interest increased yesterday, indicating that more new shorts were opened VS long liquidation.

Resistance: 211.00-211.725**, 214.50**
Pivot: 208.475-209.00
Support: 205.32-205.40***, 203.275-204.075****, 201.175**

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were mixed on Tuesday afternoon with choice cuts .30 higher to 361.85 and select cuts .49 lower to 350.83. Slaughter on Tuesday was reported at 114k head.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 5.27.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for August futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of roughly 3k futures and options contracts, snapping the 4-week streak of buying and brining the net long down to 132,564. Still lofty on historical standards.