All Eyes on OPEC: Errant Reporting Adds Fuel to the Fire

WTI Crude Oil Futures (July Future)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 60.94, down -0.90 [-1.46%]

Today, WTI Crude Oil is lower by -0.73 [-1.20%] to 60.21

The primary driver of Crude yesterday and today will be position squaring into the OPEC+ meeting. There is errant reporting that the group is set to pause production hikes. I have not seen any confirmation of this, and did not have that same takeaway after seeing the delegate’s comments after the meeting.

Sunday night is likely to feature sharp price action in either direction. Bad reporting is commonplace around these meetings and traders should trust only in OPEC themselves. Over the past four years, the Wall Street Journal has printed erreoneous information leading up to this meetings on a pretty consistent basis. Information from that outlet should be eyed with especial caution today.

Data Releases:

Yesterday’s EIA report featured a bullish report [thousand bbls]:

Crude: -2,795 vs -1,800k estim
Gasoline: -2,441 vs +90k estim
Distillates: -724 vs +642k estim
Refinery Utilization: -0.50 vs +0.60% estim
Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude oil futures are nearing technical support this morning. Despite this, our gut is going with an outsized hike out of OPEC this weekend. While the outsized hike is not as bearish as it might appear on paper, it will likely illicit outsized price action Sunday night if realized.

If this does come to fruition, Monday into Tuesday will likely present ideal buying opportunities within the crude oil space.

The diesel complex is setting up to be especially bullish. Active clients should reach out to their representative for more information on that opportunity.

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….