Indexes Clear Key Levels, But Can They Hold?

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5947.25, up 31.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21,534.50, up 157.75

Monday marked a solid start to the month of June. Tech was a clear leader, with names like META (+3.6%), AVGO (+2.7%), and NVDA (+1.7%) doing the heavy lifting. Notably, Treasury yields rose during the session despite a weaker contraction than expected in ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5 versus 49.3 and Prices at 69.4 versus 70.2.

Enthusiasm waned through Asian hours but bottomed after Europe opened, following softer-than-expected CPI data. This was preliminary data for May, with headline at +1.9% y/y versus +2.0% and Core +2.3% versus +2.4%, while both m/m reads were flat at 0%. Imagine that, the ECB has cut rates for six meetings in a row and is expected to slash another 25bps Thursday morning, and amid global tariff turmoil, there is no rise in inflation. The data helped lift Treasury futures, lower yields, heading into U.S. hours. We now look to JOLTS Job Openings and Factory Orders at 9:00 am CT, along with a deluge of Fed speak into the afternoon.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures cleared Friday’s late spike high, and major three-star resistance at 5932.75 and 21,433-21,460 before settling above at 5947.25 and 21,534, aligning with the next wave of resistance. These areas, along with the opening bell ranges from Thursday morning, which are detailed below as major three-star resistance, will provide layers of overhead supply that price action must chew through in order to help clear a path higher. If the tape stalls, we must see a constructive response to supports that begin with…