Grains Gain Overnight

Wheat

Technicals
Wheat futures saw a choppy trade again in yesterday’s trade, probing out above the 50-day moving average but reversing to finish the day slightly lower. All in all, the market has seen wide ranges through the first half of the week, but prices remain near unchanged. Support and resistance levels remain intact. We continue to believe the risk/reward setup skews favorably to the Bull camp from these levels as the chart (despite not rallying significantly) continues to try and build a base of higher lows.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 541 1/4-544***, 569 1/4-571***
Pivot: 532 1/2-535
Support: 517 1/2-523 1/4***, 498-501 1/4***

Headlines
Drought bakes China’s wheat belt, slashing harvests for some

Parts of China’s wheat belt in Shaanxi and Henan provinces have been hit hard by hot, dry weather, with the sun baking the soil into cracked slabs and scorching the wheat before it could ripen. Last month, Shaanxi recorded its highest average temperatures since records began in 1961. While official figures are still some six weeks away, more than a dozen farmers in the area and those they hire to harvest the crop told Reuters of losses and small harvests, down as much as half for some.

In some parts of the province, the drought was so bad farmers brought the harvest forward by a week. And while rain finally arrived in recent days, bringing some relief, it has also threatened to disrupt the harvest for those who waited.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.2.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for July wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 8k futures/options. The second straight week of net buying from Funds.