Crop Progress and Updated Yield Models Leave Grains Relatively Mute

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Crop Progress and Updated Yield Models Leave Grains Relatively Mute

Grain markets are fairly quiet in the overnight and early morning trade, following a mixed crop progress report for corn and beans. Our updated yield estimate is out

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Soybeans


Monday’s Recap
Nov Soybean futures ended at a one month high of 1060’4 Monday, higher by 5’6. Across all maturities, volume was a heavy 424,916, with the Nov contract seeing 125,189 traded. Total open interest rose by 1,588 (0.19%) to 855,598. Nov gained 16,827, or 5.85%, finishing at 304,464.

 

Technicals
Soybeans punched higher yesterday, tagging trendline resistance, the origin of which dates back to September. Yesterday was the fourth test (and so far failure) against it. A breakout above that and our resistance pocket from 1078 3/4-1082 could spark a quick move towards $11.00. A failure to keep the momentum going could lead to a pullback to the 20-day moving average, 1054 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1078 3/4-1082***, 1098 3/4-1104 3/4****
Pivot: 1067 3/4-1073 1/4
Support: 1053-1056 3/4***, 1030-1033***


Popular Options
Option volumes were largest for the July 1100 call (3,771) and the Nov 900 put (4,481). Options with the highest open interest are the Nov 1200 call with 25,979, and the July 1050 put with 19,155.

 

Volatility Update

Soybean implied volatility was even (SVL) to end the session at 19.12, a one month high. The 30-day historical volatility closed the day dropping 0.45% to 15.03%. The SVL Skew was unchanged, even on the day 0.0 to end at 4.18, a twelve year high.

Headlines
Soybean planting progress and conditions came in slightly below average estimates, but were within the expected range. Unlike corn, soybean ratings declined this week. Extreme moisture in Kentucky has left the state with just 75% planted, compared to the 5-year average of 84% planted for the same week. Once again, Iowa leads the pack with a net rating of 80% (good to Excellent).
The U.S. soybean crush in May was lighter than most trade estimates but still reached the highest-ever total for the fifth month of the year, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 192.829 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 1.4% from the April crush of 190.226 million bushels and up 5.0% from the May 2024 crush of 183.625 million bushels. It was the largest May crush ever and the eighth-largest for any month on record, NOPA data showed.

Export Inspections: 215,803 MT. This was within the range of expectations, but at the lower end of it and below last week’s 547k.


Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.16.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for November soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).


Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 17k futures and options contracts.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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