A Volatile Cattle Trade Ahead of the Cattle on Feed Report
Cattle futures were on a rollercoaster in the first half of the week as traders grapple with headline risks from all different directions, not to mention this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report
Live Cattle (August)
After a fierce breakdown on Tuesday, futures were relatively quiet on Wednesday. Wednesday’s trade was able to defend the Tuesday low, but the relief after such a sharp selloff was minimal. Prior trendline support and the 20-day moving average mark the point of Tuesday’s breakdown, that now acts as resistance from 212.10-213.05. If the Bulls fail to achieve consecutive closes back above this pocket, continued pressure via long liquidation keeps the downside open (regardless of shot term cash trade). Hedgers are in a tough spot here with futures well below the cash market. Options strategies continue to be a focal point for our team at the trade desk as it helps reduce the emotion of the day to day swings, offering exposure/protection with defined risk.
Resistance: 216.00-216.075***, 220.00-220.25**
Pivot: 212.10-213.05
Support: 206.95**, 205.30-205.40***, 203.52-204.07****
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were higher yet again on Thursday afternoon with choice cuts 4.92 higher to 393.79 and select cuts 1.85 higher to 374.59. Slaughter on Thursday was reported at 117k head. The 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 236.32. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at 311.04 with the NBW Real Time Index at 310.34 this morning.
Cattle on Feed Estimates
On Feed: 98.1-99.6%, AVG 99.%
Placements: 88.0-97.7%, AVG 94.9%
Marketings: 89.3-95.0%, AVG 90.3%
Weekly Export Sales
Beef: Net sales of 11,700 MT for 2025 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (4,000 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), Hong Kong (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Canada (600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for China (100 MT). Exports of 13,600 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to South Korea (4,300 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Taiwan (1,200 MT).
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 6.16.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for August futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of roughly 6.2k futures and options contracts, brining the net long to to 137,836. A historically lofty position but still below the All Time High record that was set at the end of January, 156,909.
