Ceasefire Rally: E-mini S&P Clears Key Resistance, Eyes Fresh Record Highs

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6077.00, 59.00

NQ, yesteray’s close: Settled at 22,073.50, up 228.75

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures carried strength into yesterday’s close and are trading at the highest level since late February after President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel in a Truth Social post shortly after the reopen last night. Yesterday, Iran launched multiple missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation for this weekend’s attack. There were no casualties and both Qatar and the White House were made aware ahead of time. It was Iran’s show of force in order to de-escalate. The ceasefire took effect overnight, but missile activity has continued and developments are ongoing.

Home Price data is due at 8:00 am CT and CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT. The Fed speak also continues, and Fed Chair Powell speaks before Congress at 9:00 am CT, following what has been a more dovish tone from both Fed Governor Waller and Fed Governor Bowman, who have opened the door to a July rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool the odds of July cut are at 22.7% this morning.

For now, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are holding a bid out above this elongated consolidation period, dating back to mid-May. The underlying constructiveness over that period is that the range has edged higher and slips have been short-lived. Is this the start of a test and breakout above record highs? Although we believe this market is poised for fresh record highs over the next couple of months, as expressed here, it remains to be seen if this marks the start. By that, we simply mean we must see today’s move hold on a closing basis, the weekly settlement, and conveniently, the monthly settlement on Monday. After settling at and just above what became a strong area of resistance at 6067.75-6073.75, the E-mini S&P cleared a critical area of resistance at 6103-6109 overnight and tested directly into our next pocket of 6128.75-6140.75, which will now be redefined and slightly raised (detailed below). Remember, 6103-6019 was the gap settlement on Thursday, June 12th, before the Iran-Israel conflict began, and was retested the Monday after, only to fail. This pocket at 6103-6109 will now act as support, and holding out above here paves a path to major three-star resistance at…….