Grain Markets Continue to Slide Lower Despite Crop Conditions Declining

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain Markets Continue to Slide Lower Despite Crop Conditions Declining

If you’re in July grain futures, you may want to consider exiting or rolling positions with volume dwindling ahead of first notice day next week.

 

Crop Progress Snapshot 

Soybeans


Monday’s Recap
Monday’s Soybean market was lower with the Nov contract down by 14’0 (1.32%), to 1046’6, a one week low. Across all maturities, a heavy 374,491 contracts changed hands, with 135,400 traded in the Nov maturity. Total open interest decreased by 4,606 (0.54%) to 846,415. Nov gained 11,798, or 3.46%, finishing at 352,795.

Technicals (November)
Those who sold against resistance at the end of last week have so far been rewarded this week. With prices trading back near support it may be a spot to consider protecting that position, or reducing/flattening it. What you decide is probably dependent on if you’re hedging or speculating. Feel free to contact the trade desk to discuss a tailored strategy: 312-278-0500. If the Bulls fail to hold ground from 1033 1/4-1035, the next downside target would be from 1015 1/4-1022.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1060-1064***, 1075 3/4-1080***, 1100-1104 1/4****
Pivot: 1040-1041 1/2
Support: 1033 1/4-1035****, 1015 1/4-1022***

Good/Excellent conditions were unchanged from last week, 66%. Analysts were expecting a 1% improvement.
Weekly export inspections at 193k metric tons were below the low end of expectations.


Next weeks quarterly stocks and acreage report is historically one of the bigger reports of the year. The average trading range for November soybean futures on report day over the last 4-years is about 5%


Popular Options
Option volumes were largest for the August 1160 call (2,440) and the June ZS4 1050 put (3,880). Highest volumes in Nov option trading were seen in the 1100 calls (931) and the 980 puts (1,528). Option open interest is largest for the Nov 1200 calls at 26,187, and the Nov 900 puts at 18,627.

 

Volatility Update

Soybean implied volatility finished sharply lower as SVL decreased 1.4 to end at 18.65, a one week low. The 30-day historical volatility finished up by 0.17% to a one week high of 15.17%. The SVL Skew closed down, off 0.58 to end the day at 2.91, a one week low.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.23.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for November soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net long 59,165 contracts through June 17th.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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