Are Lean Hogs on the Verge of a Breakdown?

Livestock Round Up

/ by Blue Line Futures

Are Lean Hogs on the Verge of a Breakdown?

Lean hogs are on the verge of a technical breakdown following yesterday’s bearish Hogs and Pigs report. Will this break markets lower or will support hold?

Lean Hogs (August)


We’ve been talking about a counter trend trade in lean hogs for the last week, with the market being overbought from an unprecedented rally and into a seasonally weaker time of year. Yesterday’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report has added a fundamental boost to that thesis which increases the conviction. Price action into the weekend and into month/quarter end will be important for setting the tone. First support comes in from 109.40-110.125. Below that and the selling could accelerate. The Bears want to defend resistance from 112.875-113.375.

Resistance: 112.875-113.375*
Pivot: 111.47-111.75
Support: 106.60-107.70**, 104.375-105.27***

United States Hog Inventory Up Slightly
United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2025 was 75.1 million head. This was up slightly from June 1, 2024, and up 1 percent from March 1, 2025.

Breeding inventory, at 5.98 million head, was down slightly from last year, and down slightly from the previous quarter.

Market hog inventory, at 69.2 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up 1 percent from last quarter.

The March-May 2025 pig crop, at 34.2 million head, was up 1 percent from 2024. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.91 million head, down slightly from 2024. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.75 for the March-May period, compared to 11.56 last year.

Revisions
All inventory and pig crop estimates for June 2024 through March 2025 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. The revision made to the March 2025 all hogs and pigs inventory was 0.3 percent. The net revision made to the December 2024 all hogs and pigs inventory was 1.0 percent. A net revision of 1.0 percent was made to the September 2024-November 2024 pig crop.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 6.23.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for August futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Report
Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds net long 35,858 contracts through June 17th, a slight reduction from the prior week.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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