USDA Day and Last the Trading Day of the Quarter

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

USDA Day and Last the Trading Day of the Quarter

Today marks the last trading day of the month and quarter, which brings about it one of the more highly anticipated USDA reports. Here’s what’s on our radar into today’s trade.

SPECIAL REPORT

The June quarterly stocks and acreage report is historically one of the biggest reports of the year for corn and soybeans. In this article, we will touch on the estimates for each and how they stack up versus years prior, historical price action on report day, and the current market environment.

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Corn

 

Friday’s Recap
Sep Corn futures settled at 411’4 Friday, higher by 7’4, or 1.86%. Overall, 496,734 contracts changed hands, with 189,078 traded in Sep. Across all maturities, open interest lost 14,177 (0.95%) to end the session with 1,482,259 outstanding. The Sep maturity rose by 3.22%, or 14,177, to finish at 620,075.

Technicals (December)
December corn futures made some ground back on Friday and have traded on both sides of unchanged to start the last trading day of the month and quarter. Today’s report, due out at 11am CT has the ability to move markets outside of normal ranges, which means it could set the tone for the new quarter. As far as the levels go, the Bulls want to see consecutive closes back above 433 3/4-436 3/4 to repair some of the damage that was done last week. A failure to do so keeps the Bears in the driver’s seat.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 447-450 1/2***, 452 1/2-456 1/2****
Pivot: 433 3/4-435 3/4
Support: 410-412**, 399-401***

Popular Options
Option volumes were largest for the August 410 call (3,861) and the July CN1 425 put (4,108). In Dec options, the highest volume call was in the 425 strike with 2,845 traded, and the 400 put leads with volume of 2,192. Options with the greatest open interest are the Dec 500 call with 37,293, and the Dec 400 put with 32,073.

 

Volatility Update

Corn implied volatility closed the day sharply higher as CVL rose 2.3 to end at 31.09, a one year high. Even nan%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at nan%. The CVL Skew was higher with the 30-day adding 0.89, finishing the session at 6.08.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 6.30.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net short 182,282 futures and options contracts.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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