Grain Markets Steady Ahead of WASDE Report

Corn

Technicals (December)
December corn futures were able to defend the prior day’s low in yesterday’s trade. In the overnight and early morning trade we are defending yesterday’s low. These are silver linings, but to form a longer term bottom it’s just as much about getting back above resistance than just defending lows. The first hurdle to keep an eye on through today’s trade comes in from 416 1/2-419 1/4. A close out above here could start to create more relief with the next upside objectives coming in from last Sunday’s gap and our resistance pocket, 433 3/4-435 3/4. Also important to note that strength into the weekend may not necessarily mean strength on Monday, in fact we’ve seen weakness in the last 7 Monday sessions.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 433 3/4-435 3/4****, 447-450 1/2***
Pivot: 416 1/2-419 1/4
Support: 410-412**, 399-401***

Fundamental Notes
Weekly export sales were reported at 1,262,100 MT for 2024/2025 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 888,600 MT for 2025/2026. These were above expectations.

CONAB estimates Brazil’s corn production to be at a record 131.97mmt, up from the 128.25 in June.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 7.7.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net short 206,463 futures and options contracts, the largest net short since last August. Last year (July 9th, 2024) Funds were net short 353,983 contracts. So although they have been sellers for a while, they are still a ways away from the extremes we saw a year ago.