WTI Pushes Higher on Bullish EIA, Kurdistan Disruption, and EU Clampdown

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

WTI Pushes Higher on Bullish EIA, Kurdistan Disruption, and EU Clampdown

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)

**AUGUST FIRST NOTICE DAY 07/24/2025 (Next Thursday)

 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 67.54, +1.16 [+1.75%]

 

Market Movers (Yesterday):

Bullish EIA report on Wednesday
Iraqi drone strike
OPEC+ demand estimates/market outlook

Wednesday’s EIA report printed bullish once again. The drawdown in crude oil inventories pushed supply levels back towards a 10-year seasonal low. Supply held at the key Cushing Oklahoma distribution hub reached its lowest level since 2014.

 

Iraq lost 200k bpd of production yesterday morning due to drone attacks in the volatile Kurdistan region. While the loss of barrels was marginal, tight markets leave little room for error. Traders are taking notice as a new dispute in the middle east could require additional risk-premia for the futures contracts.

 

OPEC+ demand forecasts and rhetoric around their most recent output raise were taken as positive for both near and longer-term demand prospects. The group made sure markets were aware that the outsized raise to production was necessary to meet demand. Importers have been forced to find new sources of oil as Russia and Iran’s exports have become limited, leading to increased output from Saudi Arabia.

 

Today, futures are trading +0.74 [+1.10%] to 68.28

 

Market Movers (Today):

EU announces tighter Russian sanctions
US Dollar weakness
Supply & Demand tightness
The European Union announced additional sanctions on Russian oil exports this morning, lowering the price cap on Russian oil and introducing restrictions on petroleum products made with Russian crude. The bloc specifically targeted Diesel, which is the strongest on the board this morning.

 

The US Dollar has retraced all of yesterday’s move higher, and the Dollar index has pushed below yesterday’s low. The Dollar has rallied 12 out of the last 13 sessions, and a retracement could help spur international export activity.

 

The overall tight supply & demand backdrop leaves little room for error with crude being priced below $70. Additional risk premia and some minor demand rationing look necessary at these levels.

 

Data Releases:

 

Weekly Data:

 

Tuesday Night API Report [thousand bbls]:

Crude Oil: +100
Gasoline: +1,900
Distillates: +800
Wednesday’s EIA Report [thousand bbls]:

Crude Oil: -3,859 vs +700 estimate
Gasoline: +3,399 vs -1,750 estimate
Distillates: +4,173 vs -2,150 estimate
Refinery Utilization: -0.80% vs -0.70% estimate

Technical Analysis:

 

Futures are pushing up towards the 200 Day Moving Average this morning; a settlement above these levels would put bulls clearly in the driver’s seat into next week.

 

We have remained bullish throughout the week and prefer to maintain a long exposure through the weekend. Catalysts all seem to favor the bulls at the moment.

 

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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