Crude Oil Finds Support After Weekly Loss—Will Bulls Regain Control?

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)

**AUGUST FIRST NOTICE DAY 07/24/2025 (Thursday)

 

Friday’s Settlement: 67.34, down -0.20 [-0.30%] for the day, for the week down -1.11 [-1.62%]

 

Market Movers (Last Week):

Bullish EIA report on Wednesday
Iraqi drone strike
Russian tariffs > Tighter Sanctions

WTI Crude oil futures fell last week after President Trump’s “Russia announcement” on Monday featured higher Russian tariffs in lieu of tighter sanctions. The market had priced in the possibility of higher tariffs heading into last Monday. The weak announcement led to a sell-off in crude to start the week.

 

Wednesday’s EIA report printed bullish once again. The drawdown in crude oil inventories pushed supply levels back towards a 10-year seasonal low. Supply held at the key Cushing Oklahoma distribution hub reached its lowest level since 2014.

 

Iraq lost 200k bpd of production due to drone attacks in the volatile Kurdistan region. While the loss of barrels was marginal, tight markets leave little room for error. Traders are taking notice as a new dispute in the Middle East could require additional risk premiums for the futures contracts.

 

The EU announced tighter sanctions on Russian crude oil, which include a lower price cap and penalties for refiners using Russian crude in the production of finished products.

 

Overall, the catalysts last week trended bullish. But these were outweighed by the disappointment in President Trump’s “Big Russia announcement” on Monday.

 

Today, futures are trading -0.25 [-0.37%] to 67.09

 

Market Movers (Today):

US tariff talks
EU-Russia sanction package
Dollar weakness

The macro environment is trading mixed this morning, with the US Dollar trading weaker by -0.42% (Dollar Index futures). Equities are flat / higher while US yields are marketly lower. Precious metals are higher on the day, while Crude oil is marginally lower.

 

Geopolitical risk is ramping in the Middle East as the conflict in Syria moves the country onto the brink of collapse.

 

Data Releases:

 

N/A

 

Technical Analysis:

 

We are pretty bullish on crude oil to start the week here. Catalysts are trending bullish, the current Supply & Demand situation remains tight, and technically, the chart is set up nicely.

 

The 200-day moving average sits at 66.70, and gives us solid support on which to base long positions.

 

For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at…

…

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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