Record Watch: S&P Breaks Out—Will NQ Follow?

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6396.25, up 49.50

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23,310.75, up 84.50

E-mini S&P futures advanced to another fresh record high, driven by tailwinds from a U.S. trade deal with Japan and reports that one is nearing completion with the EU. After the bell, GOOG beat earnings and raised forecasts, helping to also lift the E-mini NQ to the doorstep of its fresh record. Alphabet’s report has also underpinned strength in chips; AVGO, NVDA, and AMD. However, TSLA is -6% after another disappointing quarter and one highlighted by headwinds without EV incentives in the new ‘Big Beautiful Bill’.

It is notable that Japan’s Trade Negotiator, when asked overnight, said, “I am not thinking about signing a legally binding agreement,” and added that this is more of a mutual understanding to avoid a tariff increase on August 1st. His comments continue to raise questions about the strength of these trade deals. For instance, the biggest beneficiary here is Toyota, while leaving U.S. automakers disgruntled. On the other hand, Toyota has a tremendous U.S. production base, whereas many U.S. automakers have relied on importing materials and foreign assembly. However, my point is more that the market is celebrating the less uncertainty during this honeymoon phase of deal-making, but might be getting a bit ahead of itself in the near term. 

There is an ECB policy decision due at 7:15 am CT, followed by a press conference at 7:45 am CT. In the U.S., weekly Initial Jobless Claims, along with Building Permits, are due at 7:30 am CT. Next up is the Flash PMIs for July at 8:45 am CT, followed by New Home Sales at 9:00 am CT.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures have traded out above settlement for much of the overnight session, and these levels will align to create our Pivot and point of balance, and first key support, respectively (detailed below). The initial spike yesterday on positive news between the U.S and EU through the 10:00 am CT hour will serve as first key support at….