All Eyes on META, MSFT, AAPL, and the Fed—S&P & NQ Test Key Resistance

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6425.00, up 23.50 on Friday and 90.25 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 23,421.25, up 43.75 on Friday and 197.00 on the week

Is all the good news priced in? The U.S. reached a trade deal with Japan last week and added the EU to the list on Sunday, averting the August 1st tariff deadline for each. The U.S. and China are likely to extend their tariff pause for another 90 days. Although the Federal Reserve is not expected to move rates at its policy decision this Wednesday, the bank is expected to cut rates by 25bps in September with a 63.7% probability. Earnings are off to a solid start, and market leadership is performing well, driven by AI.

What could go wrong? We are certainly not in the camp of economic disaster, but the gap higher on the Sunday night open does raise questions about how much better it can get in the near term, without some reversion in the rally. Not only are the trade deals highly questionable, but many countries are being charged the exorbitant rate set on April 2nd, or nearly such. There is a clear difference in opinion regarding the ‘deal’ with Japan, as they have refused to sign anything, and many topics, such as measurement, remain unanswered. Yes, a lot hinges on kicking the can with China, but once the honeymoon effect of deals done before August 1st passes, those questions will arise.

We enter a big week of earnings, with 38% of S&P 500 companies reporting. Although we are off to a strong start, this week will be crucial with META and MSFT reporting after the bell on Wednesday, followed by AAPL and AMZN after the bell on Thursday. These Mag 7 reports come after the Fed’s policy decision on Wednesday. Will a September rate cut remain squarely the expectation in the aftermath?

On Friday, E-mini S&P futures settled at 6425, above the next major three-star resistance at 6420.25; this pocket will now act as the first support and a major three-star level. Below there, Thursday’s settlement of 6401.50 was never traded intraday, with the low being 6402.50; a break below this major three-star support could be the first sign of a much-needed healthy pullback. Friday’s intraday low will align to create major three-star support in the E-mini NQ, detailed below. To the upside, our next major three-star resistance in the E-mini S&P comes in at…