Oil Rallies on U.S.–EU Pact & Russian Tensions

Energy Update

/ by Blue Line Futures

Oil Rallies on U.S.–EU Pact & Russian Tensions

Crude Oil Futures (September Futures)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 66.71, up +1.55 [+2.38%]

Market Movers:

  • US – EU Trade Deal
  • Russian Sanction Threats
  • US – China Progress


Crude posted it’s best day since July 11th yesterday. On Sunday the US and EU inked a trade deal that included the purchase of US energy products at scale. Meanwhile, US trade representatives continued their negotiations with Chinese delegates with the consensus being that a delay to the US China tariffs will be issued.

On the China front, progress seems like it’s being made. If US – China relations start trending back positive, it is a significant shift in the global macroeconomic back drop.

Later in the afternoon, President Trump came out of left field to threaten secondary sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire wasn’t agreed to in 10-12 days. The move, coming after a weekend alongside EU leaders, strengthens the idea that the EU will continue to shift energy reliance to US oil, products, and LNG.

Traders should note the sharp turnaround in the Dollar, which posted outsized gains after the deal yesterday. As we said yesterday, a snapback in the Dollar could become a headwind to the commodity rally we’ve seen of late.

Today, futures are trading +0.42 [+0.65%] to 67.14

Market Movers:

  • Russia Sanction Threat
  • OPEC+ JMMC News
  • Houthi Rebels


Crude is trading higher this morning on a continuation trade from yesterday as traders try and price in the additional bullish catalysts (Russia, EU).

A headwind to the bullish run is this weekends JMMC meeting for OPEC+. The group is likely to push for another outsized production hike. While these production hikes will keep a lid on any exponential bull-run (for now), it’s a continued sign that demand is running much better than anyone had anticipated.

The global economy has proven itself incredibly resilient over the past two years and it’s clearly apparent in the continued demand for crude oil.

Data Releases:N/A

Technical Analysis:

September futures got out above yesterday’s high early this morning and a breakout looks probable towards our key resistance level of 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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