Grains Snapback to Life on Thursday

Weekly Export Sales Recap

Corn: Net sales of 170,400 MT for 2024/2025 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was below the low end of expectations. HOWEVER, net sales of 3,163,200 MT for 2025/2026 were well above the top end of estimates.

Soybeans: Net sales of 467,800 MT for 2024/2025 were up 71 percent from the previous week and 63 percent from the prior 4-week average. This was above the top end of estimates. Net sales of 545,000 MT for 2025/2026 were also above the top end of estimates.

Wheat: Net sales of 737,800 metric tons (MT) for 2025/2026 were up 25 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.

Corn

Market Recap
Corn futures were higher Thursday with the Dec contract finishing the session at 407’0, gaining 5’6 (1.43%). Across all maturities, 477,543 contracts were traded, with 209,898 done in the Dec maturity. Combined open interest dropped 12,249, or 0.76%, with Dec up 10,375 (1.52%) to 692,032.

Technicals (December)
December corn futures were able to turn Wednesday’s reversal into some follow through momentum in yesterday’s trade, taking prices back to our pivot pocket from 407 1/2-410. As mentioned yesterday morning, this is a big resistance barrier, the Bulls need to see consecutive closes out above this pocket to try to turn the tide some. Regardless if it gets out above there, hopefully this puts us into an environment where we can at least see some more back and forth trade (vs the slow bleed lower that we saw for the better part of the last two weeks.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance:415 3/4-416 1/2***, 419 3/4 -422**
Pivot: 407 1/2-410
Support: 399-401***, 383-387**

Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Oct 460 calls with 4,016 changing hands and the Dec 400 puts with volume of 6,970. Option open interest is greatest for the Dec 450 calls at 35,559, and the Dec 400 puts at 56,650.

Vol Update
As measured by CVL, implied volatility ended the day moderately higher, up 0.74 to finish the session at a one week high of 21.46. Higher by 0.49%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished at 21.02%. The CVL Skew closed slightly lower, down by 0.03 to finish the day at 2.24.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 8.4.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds increased their net short futures and options position to 181,185.