Soybean Futures are Trading Above Their Breakout Zone

Soybeans

Market Recap
Nov Soybean futures settled at a one week high of 1032’6 Tuesday, up 21’4, or 2.13%. Total volume came in at a one month high of 615,218, with Nov seeing a heavy 325,929 done. Across all maturities, open interest decreased by 2,351 (0.27%) to end the session with 880,435 outstanding. The Nov maturity dropped 0.92%, or 2,351, to finish at 435,110.

Technicals (November)
Soybeans were the big winner in yesterday’s USDA report, showing a drop in production and ending stocks, thanks to the massive acreage shift. Coming into the report, we were skeptical about beans having a story to stage a meaningful rally, unless a weather development occurred or we saw technical action change the tone. Yesterday’s technical action did change the tone with closes back out above the major moving averages, and there is now a meaningful fundamental shift and story with the drop in acres. That reduces margin for error for this crop. The wild card is if we get more trade headlines, preferably with some substance.

Yesterday’s trade took us right right to our resistance pocket, now our pivot pocket, 1034-1035 1/2 (high was 1035). The market has chewed through that pocket and is approaching the narrow gap left from July 7th. Above here and we could see an extension to the July 3rd highs, 1058 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1043-1045***, 1058 1/2-1060****
Pivot: 1034-1035 1/2 996-1000
Support: 1012 1/4-1015**, 1022-1026***

Popular Options
The Nov 980 put saw the most changing hands with 10,600 contracts done. Option open interest is greatest for the Nov 1200 calls at 30,651, and the Nov 1000 puts at 32,007.

Vol Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility was moderately down, off 0.59 to finish the session at 17.72. The 30-day historical volatility closed up by 1.28% to a one month high of 18.28%. The SVL Skew was moderately up with the 30-day adding 0.089, finishing the day at a one week high of 1.52.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 8.11.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for November soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds increased their net short position to 65,930 futures and options contracts. As mentioned many times throughout the year, Fund positioning has been relatively confined all year between -50k and +50k.