Equities Pull Back from Highs as Key Meetings and Fed Events Loom
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6471.50, down 19.00 on Friday and up 58.00 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 23,804.00, down 126.50 on Friday and up 90.25 on the week
This event-driven week kicks off with a much-anticipated meeting at the White House today between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, along with leaders from the EU. It comes on the heels of Trump’s meeting with Russian President Putin late Friday, and as he attempts to create grounds for peace between the two countries. Although progress has been touted and the U.S. has made some security promises, it is unclear if Putin’s demands are out of reach.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve releases the Minutes from the July 29-30 policy meeting. On Thursday, the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium kicks off, and Friday is Fed Chair Powell’s keynote speech.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures did pull back from record highs by the end of last Friday’s session. Notably, Friday marked the expiration of more than $2.9 trillion worth of options exposure. This could begin to neutralize the market’s ongoing bid from option dealers over the next couple of weeks, leading up to the September quarterly expiration.
Economic data on Friday was highlighted by revisions higher in Retail Sales for June, underpinning another solid report for July. However, lower Confidence and higher Inflation Expectations on the Michigan Consumer slate stoked stagflation fears.
E-mini S&P futures have been battling at the prior high set after hours on the META and MSFT earnings report at 6468.50, and this will play a critical role as a Pivot and point of balance as this week gets underway. Similarly, this level comes in at 23,845 in the E-mini NQ. Both align closely with Friday’s settlement. Thursday’s settlement and Friday’s opening bell range will create first and second resistance, detailed below. In the case of additional weakness, we see our two waves of major three-star support in the E-mini S&P at…
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