Tech-Led Pullback Takes S&P and NQ to Key Support

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6432.50, down 36.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23,469.50, down 328.25

E-mini S&P futures slipped 0.57% in a tech-led pullback, where E-mini NQ futures closed below the 21-day moving average and shed 1.38%. It was some of the biggest leaders making the largest impact; NVDA, AVGO, META, ORCL, and PLTR to name a few. This takes us into the Minutes from the July FOMC meeting, released at 1:00 pm CT. Expectations have mounted for Fed Chair Powell to come off hawkish at Friday’s keynote speech at Jackson Hole, and rightfully so given the uncertainties of tariff-related inflation have not changed, which has been his crutch. Even a transitory shock has yet to be truly felt, although there were signs in last week’s PPI report. Last week, Supercore CPI also rose at the fastest pace since January. As we look to today’s Minutes, if these come off more hawkish, it could pull forward Friday’s expected impact to the market and potentially give a counterintuitive opportunity relative to the keynote.

Fed Governor Waller, who is in the running to replace Fed Chair Powell, is due to speak at 10:00 am CT. If he wants the job, we will hear dovish comments.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures probed lower overnight, but responded to a critical area of support. For the E-mini S&P, this is a 6405.75-6413.50, and for the E-mini NQ, this is back to the August 7th low, which also aligns with a trend line from the June 23rd low at 23,329. A break below these levels will confirm if the pullback is for real and could become more meaningful, yet healthy. Our Pivot and point of balance aligns with unchanged and detailed below; continued price action below here will leave the tape heavy. To the downside, if this takes effect, there is potential to see major three-star support at….