Corn Momentum Continues

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Corn Momentum Continues

Corn futures have been impressive since the last WASDE report. Last week’s crop tour has added a fundamental tap tailwind, altering the technical landscape
 
Final Results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour

Below are the final results from the Pro-Farmer Crop Tour. This compares to the USDA’s August estimate of 188.8 bushels per acre for corn and 53.6 for soybeans.

 

Corn

Market Recap
Dec Corn futures settled at 411’4 Friday, lower by 0’2, in mostly lower trade. Overall, 368,809 contracts were traded, with 180,162 done in Dec. Across all maturities, open interest decreased 35,887 (2.30%) to end the session with 1,526,183 outstanding. The Dec maturity fell 0.12%, or 35,887, to finish at 832,835.

Technicals (December)
Corn futures continue to show signs of strength to start the week, following Friday afternoon’s final Crop Tour yield estimate, which came in at 182.7, well below the USDA’s estimate of 188.8. All through last week we talked about how what we saw was “underwhelming” relative to expectations. With friendly technicals since the bearish WASDE report and a tailwind from the Crop Tour, prices are into our resistance pocket from 415 3/4-418 1/4. If the Bulls can chew through and close above this pocket, things could get more exciting with 430 1/4-432 3/4 being the next significant upside target.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance:415 3/4-418 1/4***, 430 1/4-432 3/4****
Pivot: 407-410
Support: 396 3/4-399***, 383-387**


Popular Options
The Oct 410 put saw the most changing hands with 4,481 contracts done. Greatest volumes in Dec option trading were seen in the 420 calls (3,446) and the 390 puts (3,064). Calls with the most open interest are the Dec 450 strike (40,733), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (58,958).

Vol Update
Corn implied volatility finished moderately lower as CVL fell by 0.95 to end at 18.86. Off by 0.12%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) finished the session at 29.05%. The CVL Skew was slightly down with the 30-day dropping 0.033, finishing at 2.03.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 8.25.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds are net short 144,650 futures and options. That is about 32k less than the prior week. The bulk of that change came from 28,631 new long positions, VS 2,833 short covering.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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