S&P Sets New Record High Ahead of Core PCE Data

Morning Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

S&P Sets New Record High Ahead of Core PCE Data

 

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E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

 

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6517.50, up 21.50

 

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23,769.00, up 140.25

 

E-mini S&P futures set a fresh record high yesterday, but there was a lack of follow-through overnight, ahead of today’s July inflation data. The Core PCE Index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and is due at 7:30 am CT. Analysts expect +2.9% y/y, up from 2.8% in June, and +0.3% m/m, equal to the rise in June. The initial print has not shown a 3.0 handle since November of 2023, and if it comes in higher than expected, it would likely have a negative impact on indices to finish off the month, as it shifts rate cut expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently an 85.2% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps at the September meeting. Two 25bps cuts are priced in with an 83.7% probability, and three 25bps cuts, one at each of the three meetings, are seen at a 35.6% probability.

 

E-mini S&P futures tested major three-star resistance at 6519 yesterday, setting a new high. This level is a Fibonacci extension and now aligns with a rising trend line resistance. Given the overnight pullback, we will also maintain major three-star resistance at 6505.50-6508.50, which is critical on a closing basis for the week and month and would mark a breakout. E-mini NQ futures hit a high of 23,803, trading within major three-star resistance at 23,770-23,845. This area of resistance aligns the selling from August 19th with the July 31st high, and if it holds, it would form a well-defined head and shoulders topping pattern.

 

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

 

Resistance: 6505.50-6508.75***, 6519***, 6556***, 6583***, 6610**, 6697.50***

 

Pivot: 6500

 

Support: 6480.75-6485.75**, 6468.25-6473.75***, 6459.25-6461.75**, 6453.25-6455.50**, 6444.50**, 6427.50-6432.50***, 6419.25-6422.75**, 6411.50-6413.50**, 6402.50**, 6388.25-6394***, 6374.25-6379.75***, 6362.75-6366.50***, 6334.50-6342.25****

 

NQ (September)

 

Resistance: 23,616-23,650***, 23,715-23,734**, 23, 770-23,845***, 23,887-23,911**, 23,970*, 24,007**, 24,068-24,097**, 24,254***, 24,380***, 24,506**, 24,915***

 

Pivot: 23,640

 

Support: 23,557-23,572**, 23,479-23,499**, 23,432**, 23,329-23,370***, 23,205-23,246**, 23,119-23,132**, 23,035-23,046**, 22,884****

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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