Soybeans Flirt with Significant Support

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Soybeans Flirt with Significant Support

Soybeans tested and held significant support early in the week. Prices are right back on the edge, will support hold again?
 

Soybeans

 

Market Recap
Tuesday’s Soybean market was lower over a tight trading range, with the Nov contract lower by 2’4 to 1031’2. Across all maturities, a light 161,269 contracts changed hands, with 88,969 traded in the Nov maturity. Combined open interest added 4,416 (0.51%), with Nov losing 2,015, or 0.50%, to 399,062.

Technicals (November)
November soybeans remain mostly rangebound in the last handful of sessions, but are teetering on the brink of a bigger breakdown yet again. The market was saved by the skin of their teeth on Monday, but are back near those critical levels again. 1021 1/2-1023 3/4 is the “Must Hold” pocket. A failure there and we could see the selling accelerate. The rest of the week’s price action could have big implications on the rest of the month. Seasonals are far from perfect, but they historically lean a little more bearish into the back half of the month (see chart below).

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1047-1050***, 1060-1062 3/4****, 1074-1075 3/4***
Pivot: 1034-1037 3/4
Support: 1021 1/2-1023 3/4***, 1015**, 1000-1002 1/4**


Popular Options
Option volumes were highest for the Nov 1070 call (1,699) and the Jan 1000 put (4,859). Calls with the highest open interest are the Nov 1200 strike (38,411), and for the puts are the Nov 1000 strike (29,763).

Vol Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility finished the session moderately lower, off by 0.21 to end at 16.31. The 30-day historical volatility finished down by 0.0114% to a one week low of 18.76%. The SVL Skew was moderately down, lower by 0.59 to finish the session at a one week low of 1.31.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.8.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for November soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds net long 11,964 contracts. Indecisiveness has been the common theme throughout the year with net longs and net shorts staying mostly contained at 50k +/-.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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