WASDE Day!

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Grain markets are relatively quiet in the early morning trade with a holiday tomorrow and July options expiration on Friday.

 

 

Corn and Soybean Production Estimates for Friday’s WASDE Report

 

Read our WASDE preview here

September WASDE Preview – Blue Line Futures


Corn


Market Recap
Thursday’s Corn market was higher with the Dec contract gaining 2’6 to 419’6. Overall volume was a light 230,111, with the Dec contract seeing 138,704 done. Total open interest gained 12,188 (0.82%) to 1,494,247. Dec increased by 4,345, or 0.51%, finishing at 851,614.

Technicals (December)
Corn futures continue to consolidate with a bit of a Bull flag building. Higher lows remain intact with significant support colliding near 414-416 1/2. This pocket represents trendline support from the contract lows as well as the 20 and 50 day moving average. Also important to note is that the 20-day is crossing over the 50-day, which is often viewed as friendly. A break and close below that pivot pocket would neutralize some of the optimism. Resistance from 423 1/2-424 3/4 remains intact, just above that is the 100-day moving average at 427 3/4 and above that is the most important pocket, 430-432 3/4.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 423 1/2-424 3/4**, 430-432 3/4****
Pivot: 414-416 1/2
Support: 412 3/4***, 396 3/4-399***, 383-387**


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Dec 420 calls with 5,552 done and the Oct 420 puts with volume of 8,798. Option open interest is largest for the Dec 450 calls at 39,579, and the Dec 400 puts at 64,207.

Vol Update
Corn implied volatility ended the session moderately up as CVL rose 0.66 to close at 21.16, a one month high. Lower by 0.0007%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) settled at 28.97%. The CVL Skew was up with the 30-day higher by 0.086, finishing at 0.79.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.8.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December corn futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds are net short 91,487 futures and options. That is about 19k less than the prior week. Roughly 10k of that was new longs, with the remaining 9k coming from short covering.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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