Is the Bottom in for Wheat?

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Is the Bottom in for Wheat?

Wheat futures post their third day of gains, the longest winning streak since June.  Are the tides turning as we approach a historically friendlier time of year?
 

Wheat

Market Recap
Wheat futures were higher Monday with the Dec contract finishing the session at a one week high of 525’0, adding 1’4. Across all maturities, a light 82,503 contracts were traded, with 55,496 done in the Dec maturity. Overall open interest increased by 228 (0.0497%), with Dec off by 2,782, or 1.05%, to 263,002.

Technicals (December)
December wheat futures posted the third consecutive day of higher closes. That may not sound all that impressive considering it’s still only about 13 cents off the contract low, but that’s the first time we’ve seen 3 that since the first week of June!!! Resistance levels remain intact with 533 3/4-535 being the big hurdle to get out above. If the market can clear that pocket, it could open the door for additional technical momentum. Seasonals are far from perfect in any given commodity, but a we are entering a historically friendlier time of year for wheat which may help act as a tailwind. In my opinion, this market offers the most bang for the buck right now. With volatility near multi-year lows, options can be a great way to get limited risk exposure. Fee free to reach out to our trade desk to discuss a suitable strategy for you: 312-278-0500.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 533 3/4-535**, 543 3/4-548 1/2**
Pivot: 524 1/2-525
Support: 510*, 494 1/2-500**


Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Nov 555 calls with 526 changing hands and the Nov 515 puts with volume of 568. In Dec options, the highest volume call was in the 525 strike with 274 traded, and the 500 put leads with volume of 511. Calls with the largest open interest are the Dec 600 strike (5,412), and for the puts are the Dec 500 strike (4,546).

Vol Update
Wheat implied volatility finished the session sharply up as WVL increased 1.0 to close the day at 21.66, a one week high. Up by 0.0099%, historical volatility (as measured by the 30-day) settled at 20.23%. The WVL Skew ended the session higher, up 0.2 to close at 3.48, a one month high.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.15.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were short 92,394 futures and options contracts.

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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