Cattle futures have expanded limits today, will they use them?

EXPANDED LIMITS for Live Cattle & Feeder Cattle
Live Cattle: 10.75

Feeder Cattle: 13.75

Screwworm Update
The USDA released a statement Sunday night regarding a screwworm case being detected 70 miles from the border. What that press release didn’t highlight was the fact that the animal that had it had been transported nearly 600 miles to that point (minor details…..). Below is an update from Reuters.

MEXICO CITY, Sept 22 (Reuters) – A confirmed case of an animal infected with the flesh-eating screwworm parasite in Mexico’s northern Nuevo Leon state near the U.S. border was immediately treated to prevent a further outbreak, the Mexican government said Monday.

The country’s agriculture ministry said there was no risk of adult screwworm fly emergence due to the early detection of the infected bovine, which was confirmed on Sunday.

Fly traps in northern Mexico have not detected a single screwworm fly, the statement added.

The screwworm parasite has moved northward through Central America and Mexico, rattling the U.S. cattle industry and prompting the U.S. government to keep its border mostly closed to Mexican cattle imports since May, adding to trade tensions between the two countries.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture first confirmed the case detected less than 70 miles (113 km) from the U.S.-Mexico border in a statement late Sunday, saying it was analyzing the information and “will pursue all options to release sterile flies in this region as necessary.”

The infected animal was in a shipment of 100 animals originating from the Gulf Coast state of Veracruz, Mexico said.

“We are managing an isolated case of screwworm infestation in Nuevo Leon and implementing the measures agreed upon with the U.S. government just over a month ago,” Mexico’s Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue said Monday in a post on X.

Mexico recorded 5,086 cases of screwworm in animals as of August 17, according to the most recent government data. That was a 53% jump from July.

U.S. cattle ranchers on the southern border contacted by Reuters reacted with little surprise to the case in Nuevo Leon, and many have been preparing for months to deal with the pest.

U.S. health officials confirmed in August a human infection of screwworm in Maryland in a person who had traveled from El Salvador after Reuters exclusively reported on the case.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the country was waiting on an assessment by a team of USDA experts that recently visited Mexico.

Live Cattle (December)

December live cattle futures broke out above the 20-day moving average, which corresponded with the breakdown point from September 9th. That led to accelerated buying which took prices within arm’s reach (within the 14-day average true range) of contract highs. To move above that, you’d think cash would have to do more than just stabilize.

Resistance: 242.82-243.57***, 245**
Pivot: 236.525-237.05
Support: 230.05-230.70***, 228.75***, 222.65-223.05****

Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were mixed to start the week with choice cuts .66 lower to 381.39 and select cuts 2.17 higher to 362.09. Friday’s 5-area average price for live steers was reported at 237.51. Daily slaughter was reported at 110k head. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at 358.78 with the NBW Real Time Index at 361.55 this morning.

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 9.22.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
Last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net long 127,747 futures and options contracts. As you can see from the chart below, Funds have been pretty flat for a while.