Price Consolidation into the End of the Month and Quarter

Wheat

Market Recap
Wheat futures were higher Thursday with the Dec contract finishing the session at a one week high of 527’0, gaining 7’4 (1.44%). Overall the session saw a light 88,058 contracts done, with Dec volume coming in at 56,448. Combined open interest increased by 906, or 0.20%, to end the session with 459,980 outstanding. The Dec maturity fell by 0.60% (906) to finish at 258,565.

Technicals (December)
Wheat futures made a move higher yesterday, taking prices as much as 20 cents off the lows from earlier in the week, and back above the 20-day moving average. Though the price action was encouraging, the Bulls still have plenty of work to be done with significant resistance remaining intact from 533 3/4-535. As mentioned a million times by now, we see that as a potential inflection point that could turn the tide in a more meaningful way (if the market can get out above there).

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 533 3/4-535**, 543 3/4-548 1/2**
Pivot: 517 1/4-519 1/2
Support: 494 1/2-500**

Popular Options
The Oct 520 put saw the most traded with 1,363 contracts done. Option open interest is largest for the Dec 600 calls at 7,260, and the Dec 500 puts at 5,993.

Vol Update
As measured by WVL, implied volatility settled sharply higher, adding 3.0 to close at a one month high of 24.38. The 30-day historical volatility ended the day gaining 0.23% to a one week high of 21.03%. The WVL Skew closed the session sharply up, gaining 0.85 to end the day at a one month high of 5.08.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 9.22.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
The most recent Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were short 85,825 futures and options contracts.