E-minis Stall at Resistance as Key Data Looms Ahead of Quarter-End

E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6713.50, up 17.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24,837.75, up 111.00

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures extended a two-day rebound early yesterday, but pared gains as the session wound down. There is a full slate of economic data today to finish out the quarter, beginning with home prices at 8:00 am CT, followed by JOLTS and CB Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT. This could be the last before the government shuts down, which is now being given a 79% probability on Polymarket. If so, tomorrow’s private ADP survey becomes more important, along with any indication from today’s August JOLTS.

Yesterday, E-mini S&P futures ran into key resistance early intraday at 6729.25-6731.59, which became sticky and encouraged a rangebound trade that ultimately filled the 6696.50 gap from Friday’s settlement. The E-mini NQ tested its second wave of resistance, reaching 24,975 shortly after the opening bell, before retreating. Today’s first hour of trade, following the data release at 9:00 am CT, could give a tell for how things will set up to finish out the quarter. Most crucial is our Pivot and point of balance in the E-mini S&P at 6701.75-6705.75; continued price action below here will encourage it to fall back into last week’s range, whereas a move through first key resistance at..