Crude Slips as $60 Fails to Firm Up Ahead of Sanctions

Yesterday’s crude oil action was, in a word, disappointing. Monday night through Tuesday’s U.S. session suggested the $60.00*** level might hold with more conviction, giving the market a chance to consolidate, and breakout above $61.00–$61.25***. That did not materialize.

Selling pressure began at the European open (~3:00 a.m. ET) and faced little resistance from buyers. From 3:00 a.m. into the U.S. open, CL dropped $1.81, and despite briefly stabilizing, we’ve drifted right back toward $60.00*** this morning. It’s not a decisive breakdown, but the lack of resilient buying makes the move particularly frustrating.

The key risk ahead remains the Administration’s stance on the secondary Russian oil sanctions scheduled to take effect tomorrow.

If Trump does walk these back, the short-term risk to the downside could be significant. The level of Russian barrels currently loaded and on the water has surged to near record levels. Despite these barrels being offered (reportedly) around $45, Chinese and Indian buyers have not been buyers (reportedly) over sanction fears. “Russian sanctions”, are going to be realistically enforced for the first time since the war started, and it’s already working, question now becomes how long are we willing to enforce it.

Technical Analysis:

For now, we need multiple closes above $60.00*** and a clean pass through the sanctions deadline. Sub-$60 support continues to hold, but traders should stay cautious. The coming days may bring confusion, back-channel negotiation, shifting headlines, and rapid adjustments as sanctions come into force. Expect volatility to pick up into the weekend.