Grain Markets Teeter on the Brink as Cattle Crash Limit Down

SOYBEANS: Pullback from 17-Month High as Market Awaits China Details

Soybeans retreated 1-3/4 cents to settle at $11.23-1/4/bushel, sliding from last week’s 17-month peak as traders hit pause, waiting for concrete details from the Trump-Xi phone call and more aggressive Chinese buying.

The Trump-Xi Conversation: President Trump confirmed a “very good” phone call with President Xi, discussing soybeans and other farm products. Trump claims “we have done a good deal for our great farmers” and accepted Xi’s invitation to visit China in April, with Xi planning a state visit later this year. However, specific details on purchases remain elusive.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins promised announcements within the next two weeks on both farmer aid packages and a Chinese soybean deal, saying China is “inking the deal this week or next week.” But the market remains skeptical about how much business can realistically materialize by year-end.

Export Inspections: 799,042 MT—below last week’s 1,205,087 but within expectations. Marketing year-to-date: 420,066 MT vs. 891,825 MT last year.

Brazil Planting Update: AgRural reports 81% of Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop planted, up 10 points week-over-week but lagging last year’s 86%. Irregular rainfall in Mato Grosso and Goias states is raising concerns about planting delays and a tighter window for Brazil’s critical second corn crop.

CORN: Pressure Mounts as Farmers Sell

Corn slipped 3/4-cent to close at $4.36-3/4/bushel, weighed down by abundant global supplies, weakness spilling over from wheat and soybeans, and aggressive U.S. farmer selling.

Export Inspections: 1,632,144 MT—down from last week’s 2,065,574 but within the expected range. Marketing year-to-date: 17,482,657 MT vs. 10,164,134 MT last year—a significant improvement year-over-year.

Brazilian First Corn Crop: Farmers in Brazil’s key center-south region have planted 93% of their first corn crop, slightly behind last year’s 95% pace.

WHEAT: Russian Competition Hammers Prices

CBOT March wheat tumbled 5 cents to $5.34-3/4/bushel, hitting its lowest level since October 27 as massive global supplies and falling Russian export prices crushed the market.

Export Inspections Surprise: 474,530 MT—well above last week’s 246,533 and topping expectations of 200,000-400,000 tons. Marketing year-to-date: 12,837,645 MT vs. 10,729,211 MT last year.

Russian Wheat Prices Sliding: Russian export prices continue their descent amid heavy global supply, though analysts don’t expect the decline to accelerate dramatically.

Saudi Tender: Saudi Arabia purchased 300,000 MT of wheat on Monday, with Black Sea origins and possibly Argentina—boasting a record wheat crop—expected to dominate the sale. The low prices paid in the tender added further pressure to U.S. wheat futures.

EU Crop Conditions: Europe’s crop monitoring service MARS reports winter crop planting is progressing well across most of the EU, with cereals and rapeseed showing generally good early growth conditions.

Class Performance: K.C. hard red winter wheat fell 3-3/4 cents to $5.22-1/2, while Minneapolis spring wheat bucked the trend, rising 3/4 cent to $5.76.