Traders Brace for a Volatile Cattle Open

Livestock Round Up

/ by Blue Line Futures

Traders Brace for a Volatile Cattle Open

A friendly Cattle on Feed report is expected to be negated by a meatpacking plant closure in Lexington Nebraska, with some traders expecting to see prices at or near limit down on the open.

Live Cattle (December)


Live cattle opened sharply lower on Friday, but rebounded and traded back into positive territory, before settling slightly lower. All in all, Friday’s trade saw a range of 8.37, which takes the 14-day average trading range to a new high of 5.30. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report had a bit of a bullish tailwind to it which may have offered some hope or the Bulls. But shortly after that, there was a story that Tyson will be shutting down their plant in Lexington Nebraska. This is largely expectedly unexpected, meaning that a headline like this hard been a concern for several months, timing the headline though, proves to be next to impossible. However, Friday’s open makes you wonder if/who knew something ahead of time. Traders are largely expecting a sharply lower open, with some calling for an open at/near limit.

Resistance: 216.00-216.85***, 224.125-225.05***, 229.43-230.27****
Pivot: 212.87
Support: 208.00-208.275***, 207.20 (limit)


Daily Cattle and Beef Summary

Cutout values were firm in Friday afternoon’s report, with choice cuts .20 higher to 371.48 and select cuts 2.80 higher to 356.98. The 5 area average price for live steers came in at 217.57, which is softer than what we’ve seen in recent reports and the lowest since about May/June. Daily slaughter was reported at 120k head. The CME Feeder Cattle Index is at 339.72, with the NBW Real Time Index at 336.52 this morning.


Cattle on Feed Snapshots

  • Cattle on feed 98% VS Estimates of 97.9%
  • Placements 90% VS Estimates of 92.2
  • Marketings 92% VS Estimates of 92.5

 

Other notable headline from Friday

Tyson shutting Lexington Nebraska plant with 3,200 employees

Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 11.24.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for February futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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