Weekly Grain Market Recap

Grain futures had a rough end to the week with corn, soybeans, and wheat all finishing near the low end of the day’s and week’s range.  At the close March corn was down 5 ¾ cents to settle at 440 ¾, for the week that was down 4 ½ cents.  January soybeans fell another 16 ¾ cents today, settling at 1076 ¾.  For the week that was 29 ½ cents lower and the lowest weekly close since the end of October.   And over on the wheat side of things, the March Chicago contract lost 4 ¼ cents, to settle at 529 ¼.  That was 5 ½ cents lower for the week, which marked the 6^th consecutive week of losses. 

SOYBEANS

U.S.-China Trade Activity The USDA confirmed several soybean sales to China this week, totaling over 650,000 metric tons for 2025/26 delivery. China’s state stockpiler Sinograin auctioned 512,500 tons of imported beans (its first sale in three months), successfully moving about 397,000 tons at prices aligned with current spot levels. This makes room for incoming U.S. cargoes following improved trade relations.

South American Production Brazil’s crop agency Conab trimmed its 2025/26 soybean forecast by 550,000 tons to 177.12 million tons due to irregular November rainfall requiring replanting in some areas. Despite the reduction, this remains a record projection. Brazilian farmers have planted 90% of their soybean area, with early harvest potentially starting in January. Brazil expects to export 112 million tons this season.

Argentina reduced its soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, with byproduct taxes dropping from 24.5% to 22.5%, aiming to boost profitability for farmers.

CORN

U.S. Exports Weekly inspections reached 1.45 million metric tons. Year-to-date totals stand at 20.6 million tons, significantly ahead of last year’s 12.2 million tons. Exporters sold 186,000 tons to unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery.

South American Outlook Brazil’s December corn exports are projected at 6.3 million tons, up from 5 million tons the previous week. Total Brazilian corn production is forecast near 139 million tons, though delayed soybean planting could push back second-crop corn timing and increase climate risks.

Argentina maintained its 2025/26 corn production forecast at 54.4 million tons, though dry conditions in key regions pose yield concerns. Export taxes were cut from 9.5% to 8.5%.

WHEAT

U.S. Performance Weekly export inspections totaled 393,431 metric tons. Year-to-date exports reached 13.6 million tons, running ahead of last year’s 11.3 million tons.

Global Developments Argentina’s 2025/26 wheat harvest forecast jumped to a record 27.7 million tons from 24.5 million tons due to favorable weather during crop development. Export taxes were reduced from 9.5% to 7.5%.

India is on track for record winter wheat acreage, with plantings up nearly 11% to 24.14 million hectares thanks to abundant monsoon rainfall and strong soil moisture. Higher production could ease local prices and potentially allow limited wheat flour exports.

Weather Watch La Niña is expected to fade by early 2026, transitioning to neutral conditions. Meteorologists flagged potential dryness concerns for U.S. hard red winter wheat in the central and southern Plains heading into spring.