Jobs Beat Fails to Flip the Tape

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6960.50, down 1.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25,288.50, up 70.25

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were higher after a strong January Nonfarm Payrolls report, but sellers quickly stepped in after the opening bell. Although the heatmap was a sea of red, with MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, software, and financials weighing on the tape, there were certainly bright spots. None was brighter than VRT, which gained 24.5% and is an 8.5% weight in our Concentrated Alpha portfolio at Blue Line Capital. A strong earnings forecast helped reinvigorate momentum in the AI trade, which saw additional strength from MU (+9.9%) after a conference presentation reaffirming HBM4 shipments. MU is a 7% weight in that Concentrated Alpha portfolio. Strength also showed up in energy and industrials.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures responded to support yesterday and finished in the middle of the range. Given the firm tape overnight, we have major three-star support at the recurring 6960.50-6965.75 pocket, which now aligns with unchanged on the day. While above here, we see the bulls in the driver’s seat, attempting for a strong close on the week. Ultimately, we must see a close on the week above major three-star support at 7016.50-7021.50 in order to secure a breakout. However, a failure to achieve such mounts vulnerability by the day. For now, we want to see a firm tape above our Pivot and point of balance at…