Oil Breaks Higher as Iran Targets Regional Energy Assets
**Daily chart shown above is a front-month continuous as May futures no longer contain applicable levels
The war is expanding rapidly. While US strikes on Iran have been our bull thesis for close to two months, Iran’s response to attack neighboring oil and gas infrastructure is new information.
The Iranian regime is causing chaos across the region, hitting oil and gas assets alongside US military bases and civilian infrastructure.
The retaliation through chaos methodology is catching markets a bit off guard, and risk-premia is being added into the contract.
Weekly Technical History:
Monday 2/16- Holding of the 62.57*** level is key today. Risk is still skewed to the upside. Volumes and volatility are likely lighter today on holiday volumes.
Wednesday – Price action was disappointing, but held support at 61.85***. Headlines throughout the day may provide for better entry than this morning, liquidity remains scarce pre US open.
Thursday – Favored profit taking and shaving near 66.04*** level.
Friday – Yesterday’s rally punched out above the local 65.48*** high (01/29/26), and the longer-term high of 66.04*** (07/30/2025). The overnight high of 66.79 into 66.90 is a key region to watch through the US session.
Friday = With the ball in Iran’s court on negotiations, risk for the day looks tilted to the downside. Our Iran catalyst we began playing around 60.00 is mainstream chatter now and risk-premium within futures has been added with velocity. Some retraction on “positive” Iran rhetoric could come through the weekend.
Tuesday – Yesterday’s high of 67.05 should be watched closely today. Iran is still up in the air and the strait of Hormuz closure still presents an upside catalyst. Risk is skewed to the upside, but some profit taking up at these levels is prudent for the customers long since the 60.00 level.
Wednesday – CL held the lows of 65.24 yesterday, and is rallying today despite the OPEC+ headlines. Iran based buying is still the main catalyst driving this market. But, be aware of these OPEC+ headlines weighing on markets.
Thursday – We’re trading into key support this morning around the 64.40 level, a break here could trigger further downside unless a new and bullish catalyst comes into the picture.
Friday – The new bullish catalyst needed was introduced overnight / this morning with the leave country order for US citizens in Israel and war between Pakistan and the Taliban. If a breakout is confirmed through the US open, we’re looking at a pretty bullish setup
Monday – Holding of 70.00 is the key. We are in the process of establishing a new range accelerated volatility is likely. The initiation of new long positions should be done with prudence. The Iran war premium has been building for some time, but strikes on allies is new information.
Updated Technical:
Prices held the 70.00 range and are now breaking out above yesterday’s highs. As noted above, Iran’s retaliation-through-chaos style of war is catching markets off guard.
On a May basis, yesterday’s high of 74.70 is a key level. For the front month in April, the continuous front-month contract highs of 77.62-78.40*** is the next resistance. Above there, all bets are off.
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