Cattle Futures in Limbo

Livestock Round Up

/ by Blue Line Futures

Cattle Futures in Limbo

Cattle futures failed against significant resistance yesterday, putting prices at an inflection point into a Cattle on Feed report and a weekend of uncertainty.
 

Outside Markets & Headlines

Equity markets were firm last night but started to soften rather quickly around 4am CT. Oil has traded both sides of unchanged but is back near the upper end of the overnight range. Metal markets tried to firm overnight but retreated alongside equity markets around 4am, pairing gains in the overnight trade.

Live Cattle (April)

April live cattle officially rejected the 20-day moving average yesterday, with some help from the outside markets coming under pressure The market pulled back and came within 10 cents of first support, which we’ve had outlined as 232.55. IF that were to give way, 231.00 would be the next downside objective. Technicals and seasonals remain to suggest selling rallies is the trend. Cash trade has been pretty mute over the last few days, that could potentially turn the tide. The other potential catalyst for a directional move could be this afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report. The average analyst estimate for on feed is 99.3%. Placements are expected to be near 100.2%, and the average estimate for marketings is at 92.6%.

Resistance:235.91***, 236.99*** 239.05-239.95****
Pivot: 233.60
Support: 232.55**, 231.11***, 229.60**** 228.85**


Fund Positioning
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of 4,919 Futures contracts, shrinking their net long position to 112,044 (still historically large).

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically, we are entering a weaker time of year for prices, whether or not that plays out again this year or not is TBD. Seasonal studies are just another tool in the toolbox, but if you have physical risk, it may be enough of a reason to consider protecting price from these levels.

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

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Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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