Grain Markets are on the Chopping Block

Outside Markets & Headlines

Equity markets were higher yesterday, but there was zero follow-through from the initial surge higher, which came late on Tuesday, following a social media post from President Trump. Equity markets are retreating this morning on the lack of follow-through and clarity, along with precious metals. Crude oil is about $3 at the time of writing this. In yesterday’s EIA report, we saw a few interesting notes that may be overshadowed by geopolitical headlines:

US CRUDE IMPORTS FROM VENEZUELA JUMP TO HIGHEST SINCE 2019

US Crude inventories: Crude +6.926MM, Exp. -1.25MM

The biggest increase in Cushing oil stocks since 2023.

Grain Market Specific Headlines

-Reuters

President Trump Reschedules Visit to China

A post from President Trump’s Truth Social account, yesterday afternoon:

“My meeting with the Highly Respected President of China, President Xi Jinping, which was originally postponed due to our Military operation in Iran, has been rescheduled, and will take place in Beijing on May 14th and 15th. First Lady Melania and I will also host President Xi and Madame Peng for a reciprocal visit in Washington, D.C., at a later date, this year. Our Representatives are finalizing preparations for these Historic Visits. I look very much forward to spending time with President Xi in what will be, I am sure, a Monumental Event. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

Ethanol

• The EPA temporarily lifted restrictions on the sale of E15 gas to address surging fuel prices during the Iran war.
• The sale of E15 is restricted in about half the U.S. during the summer months due to regulations to prevent air pollution.
• The waiver will take effect May 1 and last through May 20 but could be extended.
• Agroconsult Estiamtes for Brazil soybean and corn crop

SOYBEANS

• Agroconsult raised its planted‑area estimate to 49.1 million hectares, nearly 300,000 hectares more than previously forecast.
• Average national yields were also upwardly revised to 62.7 bags per hectare, up from 62.5, it said.
• Rio Grande do Sul was the main negative outlier due to drought throughout the growing season, while most other soy producing states posted positive results, Agroconsult said.
• The survey covered approximately 1,700 farms across 14 states.

CORN

• Brazil’s 2025/26 second corn crop is forecast at 114.5 million tons, down 7.6% from the previous harvest due to lower average yields, Agroconsult said.
• The consultancy still has to conduct a technical survey to fully measure the crop yields, it added.
• The area for the second corn harvest is estimated at 18.5 million hectares (45.7 million acres), up 2.5% from the previous cycle.
• Planting for the second corn crop, which accounts for most of Brazil’s corn production, is nearly complete.

Planting Intentions Estimates

Quarterly Stocks Estimates

March 25 (Reuters) – The following are analysts’ estimates for U.S. quarterly grain stocks as of March 1, 2026, in billions of bushels. The USDA is scheduled to release its quarterly stocks report on Tuesday, March 31, at 11am CT.

The average trade estimate for corn, 9.036 billion bushels, would represent the largest March 1 stocks in USDA records dating to 1927. The figure is up 10.9% from year-ago March 1 corn stocks totaling 8.147 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the average March 1 stocks estimate of 2.063 billion bushels would represent a six-year high, up 8% from 2025. For wheat, the average estimate of 1.295 billion bushels would be a five-year high, up 4.7% from 2025.