Traders gear up for one of the biggest USDA reports of the year.

Grain Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

Traders gear up for one of the biggest USDA reports of the year.

Traders are gearing up for the end of the month and end of the quarter, which comes along with one of the biggest reports of the year. Here’s 20 years of historical data and levels to watch

 

Outside Markets & Headlines

Equity markets opened lower Sunday night with crude oil $2-3 higher out of the gate. Those first 3-4 hours of trade had that recently common uncertainty feel to it, for a Sunday night. Markets have since settled with equities back in positive territory and crude oil basically sideways for much of the night. Gold and silver got hit hard early in the Sunday night session but are back on firm footing this morning.

Grain Market Specific Headlines

-Reuters

Chicago soybeans and corn rose on Monday, recouping some of the previous session’s losses, underpinned by higher crude oil prices as a widening U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran lifted energy markets.

Farmers in Brazil harvested 72.99% of the expected 2025/26 soybean area, below the 81.31% seen at this time last year, but near the five-year average of 73.95%, consultancy firm Patria AgroNegocios said on Friday.

Rain continued to fall in parts of the country throughout the week as it entered the harvest’s final stage, Patria said.

But the amount of rainfall is expected to decrease in the coming days, allowing fieldwork to proceed more smoothly, it added.

Mato Grosso state continues to lead the country on pace, having harvested 99.3% of its estimated area.

Historical Data for Quarterly Report

We’ve compiled 20 years of data, showing how acreage and stocks estimates stacked up to what the USDA printed, along with price action for old crop and new crop contracts.

If you’re having trouble expanding the image to see the data, please reach out.

Corn Acreage & Ending Stocks – Blue Line Futures

Soybean Acreage and Ending Stocks Analysis – Blue Line Futures

Corn

Technicals (May)
The technical landscape for corn really hasn’t changed much for the last 2-3 weeks as we’ve been mostly sideways, confirming our bias which has been that there’s ample opportunity for shorter term traders on both sides of the market. The 20-day moving average continues to be watched closely as a key support level, that comes in at 459 1/2 this morning. A failure to sustain a close above there could open the door for technical pressure. Significant support below comes in from 446 3/4-449 1/4. On the flipside, our first resistance pocket was tested and held to a T on Friday, keeping it intact to start this week’s trade; 469-470 1/2.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 469-470 1/2***, 476-477 3/4***, 487 1/4-488****
Pivot: 463 1/4-464
Support: 457-459 1/2***, 446 3/4-449 1/4****, 442 1/2**

Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages for December corn over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years. Historically the month of March has proven to be on the choppier side, with shorter term price averages looking more favorable than the longer term ones.

Ready to dig in? 

Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox. 

 

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

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