E-minis Rebound on Ceasefire Framework Hopes, Bulls Eye Follow-Through

Morning Express

/ by Blue Line Futures

E-minis Rebound on Ceasefire Framework Hopes, Bulls Eye Follow-Through

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

 

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6603.75, down 18.50 on Friday and up 191.50 on the week

 

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24,129.75, down 88.25 on Friday and 801.25 on the week

 

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are higher from Friday’s holiday activity, and retesting Thursday’s official close on reports that the U.S. and Iran have received a framework to end the conflict. Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey formulated a two-step plan that includes an immediate ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by 15 to 20 days to negotiate a broader settlement.

 

Through last Thursday, markets had a risk-on undertone, and indices exuded a desire to go higher, shaking off President Trump’s aggressive comments on Wednesday night. Friday’s shortened session saw the release of Nonfarm Payroll that reined in the tape slightly. Despite surprisingly strong job growth in March at 178k versus 65k, the February data was revised lower by 41k jobs, to a loss of 133k. Additionally, Wage Growth came in light at +0.2% m/m, versus +0.3% expected, and 3.5% y/y, versus 3.7%. Although the headline Unemployment Rate was 4.3%, down from 4.4%, the Participation Rate fell by one-tenth, and the U6 Unemployment Rate, also known as the underemployed rate, rose by one-tenth to 8.0%. Treasuries sold off on this read Friday morning while indices peeled back slightly, but we do not see it as very hawkish. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures opened lower last night following this data and harsh comments from President Trump on Truth Social over the weekend. However, positive momentum has again buoyed risk sentiment ahead of the U.S. open.

 

E-mini NQ futures have extended the range to the highest since before the intraday open on March 26th, while the E-mini S&P futures are trading below Thursday’s spike high of 6653.75. As noted above, we do see a shift in the market to a risk-on undertone and a desire to find good news. This often comes on the heels of extreme sentiment and deleveraging. For now, we believe this is leading the tape, but we must see a constructive trade through the first hour. This ultimately starts with responding to first key support in the case of any selling, with that coming in at 6598-6604.75 in the E-mini S&P and overall holding above our Pivot and point of balance at……

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

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