Grain Markets Remain Contained Within Technical Support and Resistance
A sideways trade in soybeans has been present for the better part of the last month, with a rangebound trade in corn starting to develop. These are the levels to keep an eye on into this week’s USDA report.
Outside Market Headlines
DUBAI/WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) – Iran showed no sign of agreeing to U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that it open the Strait of Hormuz by the end of Tuesday or suffer massive attacks on its civilian infrastructure, in what would be the biggest escalation yet of the war.
A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Tehran had rejected a proposal conveyed by intermediaries for a temporary ceasefire. Talks on a lasting peace could begin only after the U.S. and Israel end their strikes, provide a guarantee they will not resume and offer compensation for damages.
Trump has given Iran until 8 p.m. in Washington (midnight GMT and 3.30 a.m. in Tehran) to end its blockade of Gulf oil, saying he will otherwise destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran within four hours.
Grain Market Headlines
Crop Progress (the first report of the year)
Corn: 3% planted, in line with expectations.
Spring Wheat: 2% planted
Winter Wheat conditions: 35% Good/excellent. The average estimate was 42%
Brazil Soybean Harvest
Soybean harvest in Brazil reached 82% complete, up 7% from the previous week, but behind last year’s pace of 87%. Dry weather has raised some concerns over the second crop corn crop in parts of Parana, Mato Grosso, and Sao Paulo. -AgRural
Weekly Export Inspections
Corn: 2,002,151 MT. Up from 1,879,892 last week and 1,613,460 last year. Current Market year to date: 48,465,365; up from 35,684,528 last year.
Soybeans: 779,352 MT. Up from 694,076 last week but down from 816,857 last year. Current Market year to date: 30,670,386; down from 41,591,614 last year.
Wheat: 334,106 MT. Down from 386,254 last week and 335,388 last year. Current Market year to date: 20,666,798; up from 17,728,820 last year.
Soybeans
Technicals (May)
May soybean futures continue to consolidate in a very sideways trade as the 50 day moving average and 20 day moving average continue to converge. The market feels like it’s building up energy for a bigger directional move, it’s just waiting for a catalyst and a technical trigger to do so. Our pivot pocket remains in place as the first resistance hurdle, that comes in from 1175-1180. On the support side, 1145 1/4-1150 is the pocket for Bulls to defend. A breakout above or below these pockets and things get a little more exciting again, even if it’s short lived.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1195-1200****, 1216-1219 1/2***
Pivot: 1175-1180
Support: 1145 1/4-1150***, 1135 3/4**, 1125-1133 3/4****
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is an updated look at historical price averages for November soybeans over different time frames, 5, 10 ,15, 20, and 30 years.
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