That’s a Wrap for Grain and Livestock Markets!

Grain and Livestock Market Recap
Below the written commentary is the grain and livestock chart pack, which includes an updated look at the weekly Commitment of Traders report and seasonal tendencies.

Grain Market Wrap Up

The week ended much like it started, and that is mixed. At the close May corn was 3 1/4cents lower to 440 3/4, for the week that was down 11 ½ cents. The new crop December contract lost 9 ½ cents this week to settle at 471 ¾. It was a different story for soybeans, which were 9 1/4 cents higher on the day to 1174 ½, for the week that was 11 cents higher. The new crop November contract was 2 ¼ cents higher for the week. Wheat was the weak link, sliding 4 1/2 cents today to close at 570. For the week that was 28 ¼ cents lower.

Corn

A pretty blah WASDE report left technicals in charge to round out the week as they continue to be a key driver. The weakness in corn really started on the March 30th close below the 20 day moving average, since then the market has been in steady decline to the tune of about 20 cents. Midweek the market broke below the 50, 100, and 200 day moving averages which kept the pressure on into the weekend. Those indicators will now act as resistance from 446 3/4-419. As mentioned in our morning commentary, downside from these levels is likely more limited as we approach a key support pocket from 434-437 (today’s low 438). This morning we noted that pocket as “a potential buy zone, whether that be covering short exposure or expressing a bullish opinion.”.

Soybeans

For soybeans, the recovery and ultimately the inability to break lower in the Tuesday night trade spoke volumes and helped the market re bound to the top end of the range. The market did clear the 20-day moving average on a closing basis for the first time since the day after the contract high (March 12th). That may have spurred additional buying into the afternoon session. Ultimately, this is still a very sideways market.

Wheat

Similar to corn, the weakness in wheat really started on the break below the 20-day moving average on April 1st, with a double top on March 31st as the potential precursor. Since then, the market is about 50 cents lower and back below the 50-day moving average for the first time since January. The WASDE report and weekly export sales report didn’t help anything.

Cattle

Cattle futures staged another impressive week, posting new contract highs into the weekend. At the close, June live cattle futures were 2.00 higher to 249.20, that’s good enough for a new contract closing high. For the week that was 2.87 higher. May feeder cattle futures gained 1.92 to 372.35, for the week that was 1.72 higher. Into next week’s trade, technicians will keep a close eye on the gap from October 17th, that comes in at 373.225.

Last week we talked about the resilience of cattle to rally in the face of outside market weakness and a surging oil market. The ability to completely ignore that and rally spoke volumes and certainly helped keep the trade firm this week.

Hogs

June lean hogs had a strong start to the week, trading above the 20-day moving average which propelled prices to the 50-day. From there, things turned south and rather quickly. The market failed to defend the 100-day moving average yesterday which led to weakness in today’s trade, that will now act as resistance at 104.50. The March 25th low is first support, that comes in at 102.95. Below that is the 200-day moving average at 102.00.