E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4418.75, up 48.50
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,111.50, up 255.00
The bullish seasonal trade for the E-mini S&P started out with a bang, gaining 1.1% on day one. If you buy the S&P on June 27th and hold it through July 23rd it has been profitable 15 out of the last 15 years, averaging 73 points. However, cold water was thrown over the market’s leadership after the bell when the White House said it is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. NVDA is down more than 3% ahead of the bell, but for now off the worst levels of the session. Although semis have been leaders throughout the year, we have been discussing a broadening of leadership where specialty industrials are beginning to show up. For instance, MTZ, an infrastructure company, is +15% month to date and closed yesterday at two-year highs, ROK, an industrial automation company, is also +15% month to date and closed at 18-month highs, and WAB, a technology-based company in locomotive industry is +14% month to date. All three are owned in portfolios at our investment advisor arm Blue Line Capital. The point is, although we are not ignoring the headwinds, there are many positives within this market, you need to find them.