Reported Acreage: 

• Corn: 94.096 mil acres
  • Range of expectations: 91-93 Mil acres
  • Average Estimate: 91.853 mil acres
  • March Intentions: 91.996 mil acres → Largest change since 2021
  • Last Year’s Acres: 88.579 mil acres 
• Soybeans: 83.505 mil acres
  • Range of expectations: 87-88.50 Million acres 
  • Average estimate: 87.673 mil acres
  • March Intentions: 87.45 mil acres
  • Last Year’s Acres: 87.45 mil acres
• All wheat: 49.628 mil acres
  • Range of expectations: 48.6-50.2 mil acres
  • Average estimate: 49.656 mil acres
  • March Intentions: 49.855 mil acres → Largest change since 2021
  • Last Year’s Acres:  45.783 mil acres

Grain Stocks:

• Corn: 4.106 bil bushels
  • Range of expectations: 4.08-4.41 bil bu
  • Average estimate: 4.255 bil bu
  • Last Year: 4.349 bil bu
• Soybeans: 796 mil bushels
  • Range of expectations: 750-920 mil bu
  • Average Estimate: 812 mil bu
  • Last Year: 968 mil bu 
• Wheat: 580 mil bushels
  • Range of expectations: 588 mil bu
  • Average Estimate: 611 mil bu 
  • Last Year: 698  mil bu

Planted Acreage & Quarterly Stocks Recap:

Friday’s trade was headlined by two significant surprises in today’s Planted Acreage report. The adjustments to planted area for both corn and soybeans were materially significant compared to March’s Intended Acreage report. Much has been made about the similarity in price action between this calendar year, and the 2012 and 2013 crop years. But, 2021 may be a more apt comparison. Meanwhile, the Quarterly Stocks Report was mostly in line with traders’ expectations and average trade estimates.

  Corn:

At Friday’s open, December corn futures were slightly higher, up 1 ¾ cents to 534-00. Price action bounced on either side of unchanged until the Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports were released. USDA reported corn planted area 94.096 million acres – significantly higher than the average trade estimate of 91.853 mil acres (91.00-93.00 mil acres range of expectations). This is the highest total acreage allotted to corn planting over the last 5 years, followed closely by 2021’s 93.252 mil acres. The December corn bulls put up a fight shortly after the reports’ release with corn stocks coming in at 4.106 billion bushels, which was below traders’ average estimate (4.225 bil bu), and last year’s 4.349 bil bu, but within the range of traders’ expectations. Ultimately, Dec. corn closed 33 ¾ lower, at 494-6. With the additional acreage, and moisture sweeping the I-states (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) late this week, selling pressure is likely to persist on the December corn contract into next week, and following Independence Day.

Soybeans:

The November soybean contract opened 5 cents higher on Friday at 1281 ½ following a flash sale of 132,000 MT to China. Unlike corn, soybeans floated continuously higher throughout the session. The 11:00 AM CST reports sent the November soybean contract soaring. USDA reported soybean planted area at 83.505 million acres – sharply below the average estimate of 87.673 mil. acres (87.00-88.50 mil. acres range of expectations). The market moved 50 ¾ cents higher within 5 minutes of the 11:00 reports, and ultimately chopped higher into the close. Similar to corn, soybeans stocks were reported at 796 mil. bu, lower than the average trade estimate of 812 mil. bu, but within the range of traders’ expectations. For comparison, last year’s soybean stocks were reported at 968 mil. bu. November soybeans cruised into the close settling 77 ½ cents higher at 1343-2. The reduction of approximately 3 million acres is significant. Though we received rain in relatively dry areas this week, any prolonged dryness across the I-states moving forward should be supportive for soybean prices.

Wheat: 

Before the open, September wheat futures followed corn and soybeans higher, coming in 2 ¼ cents higher at 675-2. Today’s reports were less eventful for wheat than for corn and soybeans, but the weight of the decline in corn ultimately pushed wheat futures lower. Wheat acreage was reported at 49.628 million acres by the USDA in today’s Planted Acreage report. That was inline with the average trade estimate of 49.656 mil acres (range of expectations 48.60-50.2 mil acres). Quarterly wheat stocks were reported at 580 million bushels, which is below last year’s 698 mil. bu, but was expected with the demand destruction we’ve experienced over the past 8-10 months.

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