Today brings another failed rally attempt. Will Monday’s Bull Tone Carry
The tone across markets this morning is much different than the one in which yesterday’s session finished. Last night, the People’s Bank of China cut its one-year interest rate by 15bps, surprising markets ahead of an ugly slate of economic data. Things across asset classes held quiet into early this morning when U.K. wage growth surprised to the upside (despite jobs disappointing) and sparked another selloff across bond markets. This brought markets into U.S. hours on their back-foot at best. Home Depot topped earnings estimates, but sales slowed as consumers tightened their wallets. Retail Sales for July then crushed estimates at +0.7% versus +0.4% m/m with June being revised from +0.2% to +0.3%. However, it begs the question, are consumers spending more to get less? Also, out this morning was NY Empire State Manufacturing which missed widely at -19.00 versus -1.00 expected, and Canadian CPI came in hotter than expected. This sets the stage for risk-assets. Can Bond yields key off the slower U.S. CPI from last week, and improving inflation expectations (Michigan and NY Fed surveys), or will China’s eroding economy and Congress’ fiscal oblivion take hold?
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4506, up 25.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,270.25, up 174.50
Yesterday’s late session breakdown pinned E-mini S&P futures against the settlement price from July 10th and the ensuing intraday session’s reversal. As for E-mini NQ futures, price action is flirting with Monday’s opening bell reversal level. It will be critical to see how these supports are treated after today’s opening bell.
Resistance: 4458-4462**, 4467.25-4473.50***, 4478-4480.75**, 4487.25-4491**, 4500.75-4501.50**, 4506-4509.25***
Support: 4444.25-4447***, 4429.50-4434**, 4411.25-4417.50***
Resistance: 15,172-15,188**, 15,225**, 15,259-15,280***, 15,325*, 15,354-15,370***, 15,430-15,443***
Support: 15,035-15,063***, 14,856-14,870***
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 80.99, down 1.52 Weekly EIA inventories are due at 9:30 am CT, expectations are for -2.32 mb Crude, -1.26 mb Gasoline, and -0.473 mb Distillates. Cushing is expected +0.131 mb, the second build in a row after four drawdowns.
Resistance: 81.76-81.89**, 82.43-82.57**, 82.91**, 83.09-83.19***, 83.53-83.81***, 84.30-84.65***
Support: 80.39-80.73***, 79.90**, 78.16-78.69***
Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1935.2, down 8.8Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.656, down 0.052 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 1938-1939.2***, 1944-1946.6**, 1953.6-1954.2**, 1961.6-1963.5*** Support: 1930.7-1933.2**, 1903.6-1906.9***
Resistance: 22.89-22.96**, 23.12-23.14**, 23.28***, 23.42-23.49**
Support: 22.55-22.72***, 22.05-22.34***