Grain Markets Stage a Modest Relief Rally

Corn

Technicals (December)

December corn futures were lingering along support from 480-482 for much of the morning.  The breakdown below that support triggered the biggest volume bar of the session, with about 6,400 contracts traded on that one-minute bar.  The market is working hard in the overnight to try and find its footing, but the Bears still have control until we can see a conviction close above that 480-482 pocket. 

News

Improving crop conditions coupled with record Brazilian production has been a headwind for the market.  There are some private Crop Tours hitting the road this week.  We will be on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour next week.  Findings from the “boots” on the ground will likely be a better barometer of yield potential than what we get with the weekly Crop Progress reports.  We will be providing several video updates a day from the Crop Tour, so be sure to follow us on YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook for our most up to date information. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 502-506 1/2***, 518-525 3/4****

Pivot:  480-482 Support:  472-476**

Soybeans 

Technicals (November)

November soybeans are attempting to erase yesterday’s losses, in the early morning trade as the market seems stuck between the 100 and 200 day moving averages, while trading on the 50-day moving average for seven consecutive sessions.  We remain more upbeat on soybeans than the other markets but a break and close back below 1291-1300 would neutralize that bias.  The Bulls need to see a breakout above 1324-1334 to encourage a more meaningful rally.  

News

Yesterday’s NOPA Crush report came in at 173.303 million bushels, above the average estimate of 171.337 million bushels.  That was a record for July and nearly 2% more year over year.  Soy oil stocks hit a 10-month low, coming in at 1.527 billion pounds, well below the average estimate of 1.687 billion.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 1324-1334***, 1350-1355**

Pivot: 1291-1300 

Support:  1282**, 1256-1260***

Wheat

Technicals (September)

Wheat futures broke hard again yesterday, trading to their lowest level since the May 31st low.  The market is rebounding overnight and in the early morning on what some are reporting as “escalating tensions”, but perhaps it has just as much to do as the market being so oversold. The Bulls need to see a close back above 603-607 to encourage a bigger relief rally.

News

Ukraine said Russia had attacked its grain storage facilities overnight, but a container ship left the Black Sea port of Odesa on Wednesday despite Moscow’s threat to target shipping after it abandoned an export deal. -Reuters

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 622-632***, 669-673***

Pivot: 603-607  

Support:  587 3/4-591 1/2****