We are approaching the halfway point on day two of the crop tour. Here’s what we’ve seen so far on today’s route in Indiana.
We are approaching the halfway point on day two of the crop tour. Here’s what we’ve seen so far on today’s route in Indiana.Follow along here! https://form.bluelinefutures.com/crop-tour
Grain Market Recap:
It was another frustrating day in the grain markets with each of the corn and soybean contracts moving lower on the session (wheat was higher though!). Yesterday’s Crop Progress report didn’t really do the markets a favor with Good-to-Excellent ratings coming in within the range of expectations, and soybean Good-to-Excellent (G/E) ratings left unchanged from last week. However, we may get our first glimpse at the overall impact of the current heatwave in next week’s Crop Progress report. If we see material declines in G/E ratings, it could serve as a bullish tailwind for the grain complex.
Yesterday’s price action on the December corn contract felt like a gut punch. While today’s trade mostly served as a continuation of yesterday, there were some positives to take away from it. Bulls were able to defend our 4-star support pocket between 472-476, and did their best to stage a late-session comeback. Defending this pocket is the first line of defense in building a move back to test the 497-502 pivot pocket. The contract bounced around either side of unchanged in the overnight session, but continued its descent as soon as the 8:30 bell opened trade this morning. The low for the day was recorded at 12:10 PM at 474-2, and the contract was able to recoup 5 cents before the close. For the day, December corn settled at 479-4, down 3 cents.
November soybeans were the biggest, and only, winner during yesterday’s session, but they were the biggest loser today. The Crop Progress leaving G/E ratings unchanged (58% G/E) yesterday afternoon came as a bit of a disappointment. Price action today was emblematic of that sentiment. It only took about 20 minutes for the November soybean contract to shed 8-2 cents. The contract bottomed out at 12:15, trading down to 1339-0. Like corn, soybeans were able to recoup some of their losses from earlier in the session ahead of the close, ultimately at 1346-0, down 15-6 cents. Trading off the lows toward the end of the session is encouraging, but the contract now has sufficient ground to make up from yesterday’s high.
The tables have turned! September wheat was the only contract to close in positive territory today. The contract is still working its way back to our 603-607 pivot pocket, but closing back above 600 is at least psychologically significant. Price action was choppy throughout the day, moving sharply lower at the open, then rallying all the way back. The low for the day was recorded at 9:56, 594-4, but managed to claw back all of those losses to ultimately gain 8 cents. For the day, September wheat closed 2-4 cents higher at 601-6.